{
  "research_id": "res_20260818_e76035de48",
  "stocks": [
    {
      "ticker": "AAPL",
      "name": "Apple",
      "current_price": 305.59,
      "year_high": 344.27,
      "year_low": 200.52,
      "year_high_date": "2026-07-29",
      "year_low_date": "2025-08-01",
      "pct_from_high": -11.24,
      "pct_from_low": 52.4,
      "range_position": 73.1,
      "ma50": 309.08,
      "ma200": 280.67,
      "vs_ma50": -1.13,
      "vs_ma200": 8.88,
      "ma_trend": "Strong Uptrend",
      "pe_trailing": 35.24455,
      "pe_forward": 32.28748,
      "beta": 1.086,
      "dividend_yield": 0.35,
      "revenue_growth": 0.164,
      "earnings_growth": 0.287,
      "debt_to_equity": 78.445,
      "profit_margins": 0.27618998,
      "market_cap": 4480121700352,
      "sector": "Technology",
      "industry": "Consumer Electronics",
      "phase": "Trading Range",
      "phase_detail": "确认链不足（1环<3）→ 置信度下调 | Accumulation · Phase A",
      "phase_confidence": "low",
      "wyckoff_schematic": {
        "structure": "Accumulation",
        "sub_phase": "A",
        "phase_label": "Phase A — stopping action (PS/SC/AR)",
        "sub_phase_label": "Phase A — stopping action (PS/SC/AR)",
        "setup": "止跌阶段：刚出现卖压高潮，勿急于抄底，等区间成形",
        "next_expected": "在 AR 与 SC 低点之间形成交易区间，进入 Phase B",
        "confidence": "low",
        "contradiction": null,
        "evidence": [
          "SC/PS 止跌"
        ],
        "summary": "Accumulation · Phase A — stopping action (PS/SC/AR)"
      },
      "decision_phase": "Accumulation · Phase A — stopping action (PS/SC/AR)",
      "phase_conflict": true,
      "phase_conflict_reason": "coarse_phase=Trading Range 与 schematic=Accumulation 不一致",
      "vol_on_decline_ratio": 1.0,
      "supply_demand_index": {
        "latest_20d_ratio": 1.591,
        "sd_trend": "rising",
        "interpretation": "Demand dominant",
        "daily_ratios": [
          1.526,
          1.653,
          1.83,
          2.385,
          2.004,
          2.268,
          1.82,
          1.856,
          1.869,
          1.542,
          1.8,
          1.833,
          1.67,
          1.664,
          1.906,
          1.8,
          1.614,
          1.584,
          1.497,
          1.591
        ]
      },
      "recent_trend_20d": -6.68,
      "vol_trend_20d": -21.21,
      "quarterly_returns": [
        0.29,
        10.32,
        -1.86,
        16.25
      ],
      "top_vol_events": [
        {
          "date": "2026-06-26",
          "type": "HIGH_VOL",
          "close": 283.53,
          "volume": 261775450,
          "vol_mult": 5.17,
          "pct_change": 3.14,
          "idx": 240
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-09-19",
          "type": "HIGH_VOL",
          "close": 244.59,
          "volume": 163741314,
          "vol_mult": 3.24,
          "pct_change": 3.2,
          "idx": 48
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-12-19",
          "type": "ABSORPTION",
          "close": 272.92,
          "volume": 144632048,
          "vol_mult": 2.86,
          "pct_change": 0.55,
          "idx": 112,
          "level": "200DMA"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-31",
          "type": "SC",
          "close": 308.64,
          "volume": 132489137,
          "vol_mult": 2.62,
          "pct_change": -7.35,
          "idx": 264
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-08-08",
          "type": "HIGH_VOL",
          "close": 228.24,
          "volume": 113853967,
          "vol_mult": 2.25,
          "pct_change": 4.24,
          "idx": 19
        }
      ],
      "post_climax_analysis": [
        {
          "event_date": "2026-06-26",
          "event_type": "HIGH_VOL",
          "next_date": "2026-06-29",
          "next_pct": -0.72,
          "next_vol_mult": 1.31
        },
        {
          "event_date": "2025-09-19",
          "event_type": "HIGH_VOL",
          "next_date": "2025-09-22",
          "next_pct": 4.31,
          "next_vol_mult": 2.08
        },
        {
          "event_date": "2025-12-19",
          "event_type": "ABSORPTION",
          "next_date": "2025-12-22",
          "next_pct": -0.99,
          "next_vol_mult": 0.72
        },
        {
          "event_date": "2026-07-31",
          "event_type": "SC",
          "next_date": "2026-08-03",
          "next_pct": -1.78,
          "next_vol_mult": 1.48
        },
        {
          "event_date": "2025-08-08",
          "event_type": "HIGH_VOL",
          "next_date": "2025-08-11",
          "next_pct": -0.83,
          "next_vol_mult": 1.22
        }
      ],
      "effort_vs_result": {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "volume_mult": 5.17,
        "price_change_pct": 3.14,
        "interpretation": "Normal high volume"
      },
      "trading_range_60d": {
        "high": 344.27,
        "low": 273.51,
        "range_pct": 25.87
      },
      "creek_ice": {
        "creek": {
          "high": 344.27,
          "low": 334.7,
          "confidence": "low"
        },
        "ice": {
          "high": 245.56,
          "low": 245.07,
          "confidence": "low"
        },
        "price_vs_creek": "below_zone -8.7%",
        "price_vs_ice": "above_zone +24.4%"
      },
      "cause_effect": {
        "trading_range": {
          "high": 344.27,
          "low": 245.07,
          "width_pct": 40.5,
          "cause_volume_multiplier": 1.0
        },
        "markup_targets": [
          {
            "level": "1.0x",
            "price": 443.47,
            "pct_from_current": 45.1
          },
          {
            "level": "1.618x",
            "price": 504.78,
            "pct_from_current": 65.2
          },
          {
            "level": "2.0x",
            "price": 542.67,
            "pct_from_current": 77.6
          }
        ],
        "markdown_targets": [
          {
            "level": "1.0x",
            "price": 145.87,
            "pct_from_current": -52.3
          },
          {
            "level": "1.618x",
            "price": 84.56,
            "pct_from_current": -72.3
          },
          {
            "level": "2.0x",
            "price": 46.67,
            "pct_from_current": -84.7
          }
        ],
        "strongest_sos": {
          "date": "2026-07-15",
          "close": 327.21,
          "pct": 4.014876978828914,
          "vol_ratio": 1.212988825788738
        },
        "strongest_sow": {
          "date": "2026-07-31",
          "close": 308.64,
          "pct": 7.354265473974905,
          "vol_ratio": 2.6363854009743757
        }
      },
      "pnf_target": {
        "method": "P&F横向计数法（简化估算）",
        "box_size": 2.947,
        "box_size_pct": 1.0,
        "reversal_boxes": 3,
        "estimated_columns": 8,
        "range_high": 344.27,
        "range_low": 245.07,
        "target_distance": 70.72,
        "markup_target": 414.99,
        "markup_upside_pct": 35.8,
        "markdown_target": 174.35,
        "markdown_downside_pct": -42.9,
        "note": "简化估算；精确P&F需逐笔构建。与cause_effect结果交叉验证：二者一致时置信度更高。"
      },
      "multi_timeframe": {
        "monthly": {
          "trend": "Strong Bull",
          "change_pct": 11.6,
          "lookback_days": 120
        },
        "weekly": {
          "position_pct": 45.8,
          "structure": "Mid-range — Phase B building cause",
          "volume_trend": "neutral",
          "weeks_analyzed": 12
        },
        "daily": {
          "position_pct": 13.1,
          "volume_trend": "fading",
          "signal": "Bearish — avoid entry, wait for support"
        },
        "alignment": "One of three bullish — mixed signals, half position only",
        "bullish_count": 1,
        "bearish_count": 1,
        "monthly_veto": false
      },
      "confirmation_chain": {
        "confirmed_links": 1,
        "dominant_structure": "accumulation",
        "confidence": "insufficient",
        "note": "Confirmation chain has <3 links — treat phase as technical-only reference, not a confirmed Wyckoff structure.",
        "accumulation": {
          "chain": {
            "SC": true,
            "SC_context": "post_distribution: 此SC出现在分布阶段后，是Mark Down中的卖出高潮，尚不构成积累起点；需等AR→ST序列才能确认积累Phase A",
            "AR": {
              "found": false
            },
            "ST": {
              "found": false
            },
            "Spring": {
              "found": false
            },
            "SOS": {
              "found": false
            },
            "BUEC": {
              "found": false
            },
            "LPS": {
              "found": false
            },
            "JOC": {
              "found": false
            }
          },
          "chain_complete": 1,
          "verdict": "Chain incomplete — insufficient confirmation for Accumulation"
        },
        "distribution": {
          "chain": {
            "BC": true,
            "AR": {
              "found": false
            },
            "ST": {
              "found": false
            },
            "UTAD": {
              "found": false
            },
            "SOW": {
              "found": false
            },
            "LPSY": {
              "found": false
            }
          },
          "chain_complete": 1,
          "verdict": "Chain incomplete — insufficient confirmation for Distribution"
        }
      },
      "ps_psy": {
        "PS": {
          "date": "2025-09-19",
          "close": 244.59,
          "vol_ratio": 3.24,
          "decline_pct": 29.0,
          "close_position": 0.87
        },
        "PSY": null
      },
      "spring_classification": {
        "type": "none",
        "events": [],
        "interpretation": ""
      },
      "co_intent": {
        "phase": "Trading Range",
        "co_goal": "Unclear — waiting for structure to develop",
        "co_behavior": "Likely testing both sides, building cause",
        "retail_behavior": "Confused, range-bound trading",
        "verification": "No clear phase — insufficient data for CO intent",
        "contradiction": null
      },
      "trapped_traders": {
        "events": [
          {
            "date": "2026-06-02",
            "type": "False breakout (trapped buyers)",
            "breakout_level": 314.72,
            "breakout_close": 314.92,
            "next_close": 309.99,
            "stop_cluster_below": 305.28,
            "fuel_for": "Short-term decline",
            "severity": "moderate"
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-09",
            "type": "False breakout (trapped buyers)",
            "breakout_level": 315.2,
            "breakout_close": 315.94,
            "next_close": 315.04,
            "stop_cluster_below": 305.74,
            "fuel_for": "Short-term decline",
            "severity": "moderate"
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-13",
            "type": "False breakout (trapped buyers)",
            "breakout_level": 316.63,
            "breakout_close": 317.03,
            "next_close": 314.58,
            "stop_cluster_below": 307.13,
            "fuel_for": "Short-term decline",
            "severity": "moderate"
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-28",
            "type": "False breakout (trapped buyers)",
            "breakout_level": 339.27,
            "breakout_close": 339.78,
            "next_close": 337.89,
            "stop_cluster_below": 329.09,
            "fuel_for": "Short-term decline",
            "severity": "moderate"
          }
        ],
        "active_traps": [
          {
            "date": "2026-07-28",
            "type": "False breakout (trapped buyers)",
            "breakout_level": 339.27,
            "breakout_close": 339.78,
            "next_close": 337.89,
            "stop_cluster_below": 329.09,
            "fuel_for": "Short-term decline",
            "severity": "moderate"
          }
        ],
        "summary": "4 false breakouts in last 60 days"
      },
      "character_change": {
        "detected": true,
        "changes": [
          "Pullback depth shift: pullbacks shallowing (-37%)"
        ],
        "quarterly_metrics": [
          {
            "period": "2026-05-21 to 2026-08-17",
            "up_down_vol_ratio": 1.017,
            "avg_pullback_pct": 3.93,
            "avg_up_streak": 1,
            "avg_down_streak": 1
          },
          {
            "period": "2026-02-25 to 2026-05-20",
            "up_down_vol_ratio": 1.031,
            "avg_pullback_pct": 2.09,
            "avg_up_streak": 1,
            "avg_down_streak": 1
          },
          {
            "period": "2025-11-26 to 2026-02-24",
            "up_down_vol_ratio": 1.126,
            "avg_pullback_pct": 3.1,
            "avg_up_streak": 1,
            "avg_down_streak": 1
          },
          {
            "period": "2025-09-03 to 2025-11-25",
            "up_down_vol_ratio": 1.051,
            "avg_pullback_pct": 1.94,
            "avg_up_streak": 1,
            "avg_down_streak": 1
          }
        ],
        "interpretation": "ChoCh detected — phase transition in progress"
      },
      "volume_by_price": {
        "window": "2026-02-25 to 2026-08-17",
        "price_range": "245.07 - 344.27",
        "current_zone": "HVN (strong support/resistance zone)",
        "HVN": [
          {
            "price_low": 309.55,
            "price_high": 314.51,
            "volume": 635090644.0
          },
          {
            "price_low": 304.59,
            "price_high": 309.55,
            "volume": 582255580.0
          },
          {
            "price_low": 294.67,
            "price_high": 299.63,
            "volume": 515621881.0
          }
        ],
        "LVN": [
          {
            "price_low": 319.47,
            "price_high": 324.43,
            "volume": 124472954.0
          },
          {
            "price_low": 334.35,
            "price_high": 339.31,
            "volume": 95723529.0
          },
          {
            "price_low": 339.31,
            "price_high": 344.27,
            "volume": 61898382.0
          }
        ],
        "bins": [
          {
            "price_low": 245.07,
            "price_high": 250.03,
            "volume": 242010756.0
          },
          {
            "price_low": 250.03,
            "price_high": 254.99,
            "volume": 440500473.0
          },
          {
            "price_low": 254.99,
            "price_high": 259.95,
            "volume": 372044775.0
          },
          {
            "price_low": 259.95,
            "price_high": 264.91,
            "volume": 273934638.0
          },
          {
            "price_low": 264.91,
            "price_high": 269.87,
            "volume": 278342755.0
          },
          {
            "price_low": 269.87,
            "price_high": 274.83,
            "volume": 355314280.0
          },
          {
            "price_low": 274.83,
            "price_high": 279.79,
            "volume": 244403175.0
          },
          {
            "price_low": 279.79,
            "price_high": 284.75,
            "volume": 323979320.0
          },
          {
            "price_low": 284.75,
            "price_high": 289.71,
            "volume": 223891348.0
          },
          {
            "price_low": 289.71,
            "price_high": 294.67,
            "volume": 365344522.0
          },
          {
            "price_low": 294.67,
            "price_high": 299.63,
            "volume": 515621881.0
          },
          {
            "price_low": 299.63,
            "price_high": 304.59,
            "volume": 404783662.0
          },
          {
            "price_low": 304.59,
            "price_high": 309.55,
            "volume": 582255580.0
          },
          {
            "price_low": 309.55,
            "price_high": 314.51,
            "volume": 635090644.0
          },
          {
            "price_low": 314.51,
            "price_high": 319.47,
            "volume": 127633956.0
          },
          {
            "price_low": 319.47,
            "price_high": 324.43,
            "volume": 124472954.0
          },
          {
            "price_low": 324.43,
            "price_high": 329.39,
            "volume": 154697288.0
          },
          {
            "price_low": 329.39,
            "price_high": 334.35,
            "volume": 208546326.0
          },
          {
            "price_low": 334.35,
            "price_high": 339.31,
            "volume": 95723529.0
          },
          {
            "price_low": 339.31,
            "price_high": 344.27,
            "volume": 61898382.0
          }
        ]
      },
      "stop_hunts": {
        "events": [
          {
            "date": "2026-06-29",
            "type": "downside stop hunt",
            "level": "200DMA",
            "level_price": 280.17,
            "low": 279.61,
            "close": 281.49,
            "next_close": 289.11,
            "vol_ratio": 1.31
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-06",
            "type": "downside stop hunt",
            "level": "50DMA",
            "level_price": 308.84,
            "low": 306.73,
            "close": 312.39,
            "next_close": 310.39,
            "vol_ratio": 1.06
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-08",
            "type": "downside stop hunt",
            "level": "50DMA",
            "level_price": 308.84,
            "low": 306.78,
            "close": 313.12,
            "next_close": 315.94,
            "vol_ratio": 0.82
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-09",
            "type": "downside stop hunt",
            "level": "50DMA",
            "level_price": 308.84,
            "low": 307.89,
            "close": 315.94,
            "next_close": 315.04,
            "vol_ratio": 0.95
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-08-11",
            "type": "upside stop hunt",
            "level": "50DMA",
            "level_price": 308.84,
            "high": 309.97,
            "close": 304.91,
            "next_close": 302.25,
            "vol_ratio": 0.74
          }
        ],
        "count": 9,
        "implication": "CO actively engineering liquidity — confirms active smart money presence"
      },
      "four_master": {
        "duan_yongping": {
          "score": 5.0,
          "rating": 5.0,
          "max": 6,
          "details": [
            "→ 行业阈值: 科技软件：高毛利护城河，低杠杆优先",
            "⚠️ 毛利率 48.7% — 中等定价能力",
            "✅ ROE 148.8% > 20% 行业优质线",
            "⚠️ ROE/ROA=5.5x > 4 — ROE靠杠杆驱动，非运营质量，衰退期脆弱",
            "⚠️ D/E 78.4% — 适度杠杆",
            "✅ OCF/NI 1.14 — 盈利有现金流支撑",
            "✅ 净利率 27.6% > 10%",
            "✅ 营收增速 16.4% > 5%"
          ],
          "industry_profile": "科技软件：高毛利护城河，低杠杆优先"
        },
        "buffett": {
          "score": 0.5,
          "rating": 2.0,
          "max": 4,
          "details": [
            "❌ PEG 2.47 > 2 — 为增长付出过高溢价",
            "⚠️ OE收益率 2.4% < 4.5% — 安全边际薄",
            "→ PE交叉验证: 32.3（主要依赖PEG评分）",
            "⚠️ EV/EBITDA 26.7x > 20 — 高溢价",
            "→ D/E 78.4% — 杠杆适中"
          ]
        },
        "munger": {
          "score": 3.0,
          "rating": 4.0,
          "max": 4.5,
          "details": [
            "✅ 无明显财务困境信号",
            "❌ 杠杆质量检查失败 ROE/ROA=5.5x",
            "⚠️ 毛利率 49% — 中等竞争地位",
            "✅ 无明显管理层红旗",
            "✅ 盈利和营收双增长 — 护城河完好"
          ],
          "risks": [
            "⚠️ ROE/ROA=5.5x > 4 — ROE由杠杆驱动而非运营，衰退期脆弱"
          ]
        },
        "lilu": {
          "score": 3.5,
          "rating": 5.0,
          "max": 4,
          "details": [
            "✅ Revenue +16% — expanding",
            "✅ Earnings +29%",
            "⚠️ Beta 1.09",
            "⚠️ Sector \"Technology\" — complex, requires deep expertise",
            "✅ In Technology with strong growth — aligned with progress"
          ]
        },
        "composite": 4.0,
        "coverage": "high",
        "coverage_note": "full（核心字段覆盖100%，缺失字段视为未知，不视为无风险）",
        "owner_earnings": {
          "method": "FCF-based",
          "owner_earnings": 107721875456,
          "oe_yield": 2.4,
          "risk_free_comparison": "Weak: OE yield 2.4% < 4.5% risk-free",
          "details": [
            "Free Cash Flow: $107,721,875,456",
            "FCF Yield: 2.40%",
            "EV/OE: 41.8x",
            "Net Debt: $21,944,995,840"
          ]
        },
        "dcf": {
          "method": "DCF (FCF三情景)",
          "scenarios": {
            "乐观": {
              "probability": 0.25,
              "growth_rate_5y_pct": 40.0,
              "intrinsic_per_share": 490.04,
              "current_price": 306.945,
              "margin_of_safety_pct": 37.4,
              "verdict": "深度低估"
            },
            "中性": {
              "probability": 0.5,
              "growth_rate_5y_pct": 28.7,
              "intrinsic_per_share": 329.55,
              "current_price": 306.945,
              "margin_of_safety_pct": 6.9,
              "verdict": "合理"
            },
            "悲观": {
              "probability": 0.25,
              "growth_rate_5y_pct": 14.3,
              "intrinsic_per_share": 190.61,
              "current_price": 306.945,
              "margin_of_safety_pct": -61.0,
              "verdict": "高估"
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          "margin_of_safety": 6.9,
          "recommendation": "⚠️ 安全边际 6.9% — 合理估值，等待调整",
          "caveats": [
            "基础增速估算值 28.7%/年（来自财务数据，非分析师预测）"
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        "flags": [
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        "windows": {},
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          "revenue_growth": "yfinance",
          "earnings_growth": "yfinance",
          "debt_to_equity": "yfinance",
          "return_on_equity": "yfinance",
          "return_on_assets": "yfinance",
          "gross_margins": "yfinance",
          "operating_margins": "yfinance",
          "profit_margins": "yfinance",
          "market_cap": "yfinance",
          "current_price": "yfinance",
          "ev_to_ebitda": "alpha_vantage",
          "price_to_book": "yfinance",
          "shares_outstanding": "yfinance",
          "implied_shares_outstanding": "yfinance",
          "50ma": "yfinance",
          "200ma": "yfinance"
        }
      },
      "data_fetched_at": "2026-08-18 21:46:27",
      "data_as_of": "2026-08-17",
      "data_source": "Tiingo (OHLCV) + Alpha Vantage (US fundamentals) + Finnhub (news/sentiment)",
      "ohlcv_source": "tiingo",
      "ohlcv_adjustment": "adjusted_ohlc",
      "date_convention": "ISO-8601 trading date; source exchange timezone",
      "field_sources": {
        "industry": "yfinance",
        "sector": "yfinance",
        "dividendYield": "yfinance",
        "beta": "yfinance",
        "trailingPE": "yfinance",
        "forwardPE": "yfinance",
        "marketCap": "yfinance",
        "profitMargins": "yfinance",
        "sharesOutstanding": "yfinance",
        "impliedSharesOutstanding": "yfinance",
        "priceToBook": "yfinance",
        "pegRatio": "yfinance",
        "currentPrice": "yfinance",
        "debtToEquity": "yfinance",
        "returnOnAssets": "yfinance",
        "returnOnEquity": "yfinance",
        "earningsGrowth": "yfinance",
        "revenueGrowth": "yfinance",
        "grossMargins": "yfinance",
        "operatingMargins": "yfinance",
        "regularMarketPrice": "yfinance",
        "evToEbitda": "alpha_vantage",
        "pe_trailing": "yfinance",
        "pe_forward": "yfinance",
        "revenue_growth": "yfinance",
        "earnings_growth": "yfinance",
        "debt_to_equity": "yfinance",
        "return_on_equity": "yfinance",
        "return_on_assets": "yfinance",
        "gross_margins": "yfinance",
        "operating_margins": "yfinance",
        "profit_margins": "yfinance",
        "market_cap": "yfinance",
        "current_price": "yfinance",
        "ev_to_ebitda": "alpha_vantage",
        "price_to_book": "yfinance",
        "shares_outstanding": "yfinance",
        "implied_shares_outstanding": "yfinance",
        "50ma": "yfinance",
        "200ma": "yfinance"
      },
      "provider_status": {
        "ohlcv": "tiingo",
        "yfinance": "ok",
        "alpha_vantage": "ok",
        "finnhub": "ok"
      },
      "event_news": null,
      "disclaimer": "本结果为技术面研究框架的机械输出，基于历史价量+滞后财报，事件数据缺失时不得解释为没有风险；非投资建议，据此操作风险自负。"
    }
  ],
  "failed_count": 0,
  "partial": false
}