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      "grade": "E",
      "action": "回避 (<35)",
      "components": {
        "technical_raw": 10.0,
        "fundamental": 33.2,
        "trade_rr": 12,
        "relative_strength_excess_1m": null,
        "event_status": "available",
        "market_regime": "unknown",
        "raw_before_haircut": 55.2,
        "haircut_factor": 0.612
      },
      "haircut_notes": [
        "确认链不足(<3环) → ×0.85",
        "阶段置信度低 → ×0.8",
        "基准相对强度不可用 → ×0.9"
      ]
    },
    "forecast": {
      "status": "available",
      "horizon_trading_days": 30,
      "model_version": "rule-v3.6.1",
      "feature_version": "features-v1",
      "calibration_version": "9股306窗口3轮回测校准(2026-08-18)",
      "edge_label": "weak_edge",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "confidence_interval": null,
      "direction": "上行",
      "direction_reasons": {
        "momentum_slope_20d": 1.4545,
        "momentum_vote": "上行",
        "structure": "Accumulation",
        "structure_vote": "上行",
        "bias": "NEUTRAL",
        "bias_vote": "中性",
        "total_score": 1.5
      },
      "probability": 0.53,
      "probability_basis": "9股306窗口3轮回测校准(2026-08-18)",
      "target_price": 241.56,
      "target_pct": 9.9,
      "basis": "20日动量外推（收缩0.5）",
      "clamped": false,
      "max_monthly_move_pct": 15,
      "extended_target": 216.58,
      "reference_range": {
        "low": 234.98,
        "high": 248.14
      },
      "levels": {
        "creek_high": 216.58,
        "ice_low": 189.8,
        "markup_1x": 308.46,
        "markdown_1x": 91.89
      },
      "momentum_slope_20d": 1.4545,
      "caveats": [
        "这是基于历史价量与Wyckoff结构的统计推断，不是承诺或投资建议。",
        "目标价位为方向性参考，未包含未来财报、公告、政策等事件冲击。",
        "方向概率为定性估计（53%），应结合确认链和事件面复核。"
      ]
    }
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-19T14:28:21.960651+00:00"
}
{
  "id": "evt_000033",
  "research_id": "res_20260819_7b0bdf5467",
  "sequence": 33,
  "type": "portfolio.analyzed",
  "stage": "portfolio_risk",
  "ticker": null,
  "status": "completed",
  "progress": 0.93,
  "message": "组合风险与仓位约束已计算",
  "payload": {
    "status": "no_portfolio_supplied"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-19T14:28:21.962479+00:00"
}
{
  "id": "evt_000034",
  "research_id": "res_20260819_7b0bdf5467",
  "sequence": 34,
  "type": "report.started",
  "stage": "report_generation",
  "ticker": null,
  "status": "running",
  "progress": 0.94,
  "message": "正在生成研究报告",
  "payload": {},
  "created_at": "2026-08-19T14:28:21.969940+00:00"
}