{ "research_id": "res_20260819_7b0bdf5467", "stocks": [ { "ticker": "AAPL", "name": "Apple", "current_price": 310.03, "year_high": 344.27, "year_low": 200.52, "year_high_date": "2026-07-29", "year_low_date": "2025-08-01", "pct_from_high": -9.95, "pct_from_low": 54.61, "range_position": 76.2, "ma50": 309.13, "ma200": 280.87, "vs_ma50": 0.29, "vs_ma200": 10.38, "ma_trend": "Strong Uptrend", "pe_trailing": 36.371986, "pe_forward": 33.210194, "beta": 1.086, "dividend_yield": 0.35, "revenue_growth": 0.164, "earnings_growth": 0.287, "debt_to_equity": null, "profit_margins": 0.276, "market_cap": 4623435825152, "sector": "TECHNOLOGY", "industry": "CONSUMER ELECTRONICS", "phase": "Mark Up", "phase_detail": "确认链不足（1环<3）→ 置信度下调 | Accumulation · Phase A", "phase_confidence": "low", "wyckoff_schematic": { "structure": "Accumulation", "sub_phase": "A", "phase_label": "Phase A — stopping action (PS/SC/AR)", "sub_phase_label": "Phase A — stopping action (PS/SC/AR)", "setup": "止跌阶段：刚出现卖压高潮，勿急于抄底，等区间成形", "next_expected": "在 AR 与 SC 低点之间形成交易区间，进入 Phase B", "confidence": "low", "contradiction": null, "evidence": [ "SC/PS 止跌" ], "summary": "Accumulation · Phase A — stopping action (PS/SC/AR)" }, "decision_phase": "Accumulation · Phase A — stopping action (PS/SC/AR)", "phase_conflict": false, "phase_conflict_reason": null, "vol_on_decline_ratio": 1.0, "supply_demand_index": { "latest_20d_ratio": 1.601, "sd_trend": "rising", "interpretation": "Demand dominant", "daily_ratios": [ 1.653, 1.83, 2.385, 2.004, 2.268, 1.82, 1.856, 1.869, 1.542, 1.8, 1.833, 1.67, 1.664, 1.906, 1.8, 1.614, 1.584, 1.497, 1.591, 1.601 ] }, "recent_trend_20d": -4.78, "vol_trend_20d": -20.07, "quarterly_returns": [ 0.48, 11.84, -1.56, 15.87 ], "top_vol_events": [ { "date": "2026-06-26", "type": "HIGH_VOL", "close": 283.53, "volume": 261775450, "vol_mult": 5.17, "pct_change": 3.14, "idx": 239 }, { "date": "2025-09-19", "type": "HIGH_VOL", "close": 244.59, "volume": 163741314, "vol_mult": 3.23, "pct_change": 3.2, "idx": 47 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "type": "ABSORPTION", "close": 272.92, "volume": 144632048, "vol_mult": 2.85, "pct_change": 0.55, "idx": 111, "level": "200DMA" }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "type": "SC", "close": 308.64, "volume": 132489137, "vol_mult": 2.62, "pct_change": -7.35, "idx": 263 }, { "date": "2025-08-08", "type": "HIGH_VOL", "close": 228.24, "volume": 113853967, "vol_mult": 2.25, "pct_change": 4.24, "idx": 18 } ], "post_climax_analysis": [ { "event_date": "2026-06-26", "event_type": "HIGH_VOL", "next_date": "2026-06-29", "next_pct": -0.72, "next_vol_mult": 1.31 }, { "event_date": "2025-09-19", "event_type": "HIGH_VOL", "next_date": "2025-09-22", "next_pct": 4.31, "next_vol_mult": 2.08 }, { "event_date": "2025-12-19", "event_type": "ABSORPTION", "next_date": "2025-12-22", "next_pct": -0.99, "next_vol_mult": 0.72 }, { "event_date": "2026-07-31", "event_type": "SC", "next_date": "2026-08-03", "next_pct": -1.78, "next_vol_mult": 1.48 }, { "event_date": "2025-08-08", "event_type": "HIGH_VOL", "next_date": "2025-08-11", "next_pct": -0.83, "next_vol_mult": 1.22 } ], "effort_vs_result": { "date": "2026-06-26", "volume_mult": 5.17, "price_change_pct": 3.14, "interpretation": "Normal high volume" }, "trading_range_60d": { "high": 344.27, "low": 273.51, "range_pct": 25.87 }, "creek_ice": { "creek": { "high": 344.27, "low": 334.7, "confidence": "low" }, "ice": { "high": 245.56, "low": 245.07, "confidence": "low" }, "price_vs_creek": "below_zone -7.4%", "price_vs_ice": "above_zone +26.3%" }, "cause_effect": { "trading_range": { "high": 344.27, "low": 245.07, "width_pct": 40.5, "cause_volume_multiplier": 1.0 }, "markup_targets": [ { "level": "1.0x", "price": 443.47, "pct_from_current": 43.0 }, { "level": "1.618x", "price": 504.78, "pct_from_current": 62.8 }, { "level": "2.0x", "price": 542.67, "pct_from_current": 75.0 } ], "markdown_targets": [ { "level": "1.0x", "price": 145.87, "pct_from_current": -52.9 }, { "level": "1.618x", "price": 84.56, "pct_from_current": -72.7 }, { "level": "2.0x", "price": 46.67, "pct_from_current": -84.9 } ], "strongest_sos": { "date": "2026-07-15", "close": 327.21, "pct": 4.014876978828914, "vol_ratio": 1.209037180861914 }, "strongest_sow": { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 308.64, "pct": 7.354265473974905, "vol_ratio": 2.627796649970722 } }, "pnf_target": { "method": "P&F横向计数法（简化估算）", "box_size": 2.947, "box_size_pct": 1.0, "reversal_boxes": 3, "estimated_columns": 8, "range_high": 344.27, "range_low": 245.07, "target_distance": 70.72, "markup_target": 414.99, "markup_upside_pct": 33.9, "markdown_target": 174.35, "markdown_downside_pct": -43.8, "note": "简化估算；精确P&F需逐笔构建。与cause_effect结果交叉验证：二者一致时置信度更高。" }, "multi_timeframe": { "monthly": { "trend": "Strong Bull", "change_pct": 13.8, "lookback_days": 120 }, "weekly": { "position_pct": 45.3, "structure": "Mid-range — Phase B building cause", "volume_trend": "neutral", "weeks_analyzed": 12 }, "daily": { "position_pct": 23.1, "volume_trend": "fading", "signal": "Bearish — avoid entry, wait for support" }, "alignment": "One of three bullish — mixed signals, half position only", "bullish_count": 1, "bearish_count": 1, "monthly_veto": false }, "confirmation_chain": { "confirmed_links": 1, "dominant_structure": "accumulation", "confidence": "insufficient", "note": "Confirmation chain has <3 links — treat phase as technical-only reference, not a confirmed Wyckoff structure.", "accumulation": { "chain": { "SC": true, "SC_context": "post_distribution: 此SC出现在分布阶段后，是Mark Down中的卖出高潮，尚不构成积累起点；需等AR→ST序列才能确认积累Phase A", "AR": { "found": false }, "ST": { "found": false }, "Spring": { "found": false }, "SOS": { "found": false }, "BUEC": { "found": false }, "LPS": { "found": false }, "JOC": { "found": false } }, "chain_complete": 1, "verdict": "Chain incomplete — insufficient confirmation for Accumulation" }, "distribution": { "chain": { "BC": true, "AR": { "found": false }, "ST": { "found": false }, "UTAD": { "found": false }, "SOW": { "found": false }, "LPSY": { "found": false } }, "chain_complete": 1, "verdict": "Chain incomplete — insufficient confirmation for Distribution" } }, "ps_psy": { "PS": { "date": "2025-09-19", "close": 244.59, "vol_ratio": 3.23, "decline_pct": 29.0, "close_position": 0.87 }, "PSY": null }, "spring_classification": { "type": "none", "events": [], "interpretation": "" }, "co_intent": { "phase": "Mark Up", "co_goal": "Let position run, manage pullbacks", "co_behavior": "Support dips, allow price to rise, absorb weak-hand selling", "retail_behavior": "Trend following, adding on dips", "verification": "Mark Up without confirmed accumulation base — caution", "contradiction": null }, "trapped_traders": { "events": [ { "date": "2026-06-02", "type": "False breakout (trapped buyers)", "breakout_level": 314.72, "breakout_close": 314.92, "next_close": 309.99, "stop_cluster_below": 305.28, "fuel_for": "Short-term decline", "severity": "moderate" }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "type": "False breakout (trapped buyers)", "breakout_level": 315.2, "breakout_close": 315.94, "next_close": 315.04, "stop_cluster_below": 305.74, "fuel_for": "Short-term decline", "severity": "moderate" }, { "date": "2026-07-13", "type": "False breakout (trapped buyers)", "breakout_level": 316.63, "breakout_close": 317.03, "next_close": 314.58, "stop_cluster_below": 307.13, "fuel_for": "Short-term decline", "severity": "moderate" }, { "date": "2026-07-28", "type": "False breakout (trapped buyers)", "breakout_level": 339.27, "breakout_close": 339.78, "next_close": 337.89, "stop_cluster_below": 329.09, "fuel_for": "Short-term decline", "severity": "moderate" } ], "active_traps": [ { "date": "2026-07-28", "type": "False breakout (trapped buyers)", "breakout_level": 339.27, "breakout_close": 339.78, "next_close": 337.89, "stop_cluster_below": 329.09, "fuel_for": "Short-term decline", "severity": "moderate" } ], "summary": "4 false breakouts in last 60 days" }, "character_change": { "detected": true, "changes": [ "Pullback depth shift: pullbacks shallowing (-40%)" ], "quarterly_metrics": [ { "period": "2026-05-22 to 2026-08-18", "up_down_vol_ratio": 1.022, "avg_pullback_pct": 4.01, "avg_up_streak": 1, "avg_down_streak": 1 }, { "period": "2026-02-26 to 2026-05-21", "up_down_vol_ratio": 1.02, "avg_pullback_pct": 2.02, "avg_up_streak": 1, "avg_down_streak": 1 }, { "period": "2025-11-28 to 2026-02-25", "up_down_vol_ratio": 1.136, "avg_pullback_pct": 3.05, "avg_up_streak": 1, "avg_down_streak": 1 }, { "period": "2025-09-04 to 2025-11-26", "up_down_vol_ratio": 1.042, "avg_pullback_pct": 1.84, "avg_up_streak": 1, "avg_down_streak": 1 } ], "interpretation": "ChoCh detected — phase transition in progress" }, "volume_by_price": { "window": "2026-02-26 to 2026-08-18", "price_range": "245.07 - 344.27", "current_zone": "HVN (strong support/resistance zone)", "HVN": [ { "price_low": 309.55, "price_high": 314.51, "volume": 653115618.0 }, { "price_low": 304.59, "price_high": 309.55, "volume": 617655141.0 }, { "price_low": 294.67, "price_high": 299.63, "volume": 515621881.0 } ], "LVN": [ { "price_low": 319.47, "price_high": 324.43, "volume": 124472954.0 }, { "price_low": 334.35, "price_high": 339.31, "volume": 95723529.0 }, { "price_low": 339.31, "price_high": 344.27, "volume": 61898382.0 } ], "bins": [ { "price_low": 245.07, "price_high": 250.03, "volume": 242010756.0 }, { "price_low": 250.03, "price_high": 254.99, "volume": 440500473.0 }, { "price_low": 254.99, "price_high": 259.95, "volume": 372044775.0 }, { "price_low": 259.95, "price_high": 264.91, "volume": 273934638.0 }, { "price_low": 264.91, "price_high": 269.87, "volume": 278342755.0 }, { "price_low": 269.87, "price_high": 274.83, "volume": 321599938.0 }, { "price_low": 274.83, "price_high": 279.79, "volume": 244403175.0 }, { "price_low": 279.79, "price_high": 284.75, "volume": 323979320.0 }, { "price_low": 284.75, "price_high": 289.71, "volume": 223891348.0 }, { "price_low": 289.71, "price_high": 294.67, "volume": 365344522.0 }, { "price_low": 294.67, "price_high": 299.63, "volume": 515621881.0 }, { "price_low": 299.63, "price_high": 304.59, "volume": 404783662.0 }, { "price_low": 304.59, "price_high": 309.55, "volume": 617655141.0 }, { "price_low": 309.55, "price_high": 314.51, "volume": 653115618.0 }, { "price_low": 314.51, "price_high": 319.47, "volume": 127633956.0 }, { "price_low": 319.47, "price_high": 324.43, "volume": 124472954.0 }, { "price_low": 324.43, "price_high": 329.39, "volume": 154697288.0 }, { "price_low": 329.39, "price_high": 334.35, "volume": 208546326.0 }, { "price_low": 334.35, "price_high": 339.31, "volume": 95723529.0 }, { "price_low": 339.31, "price_high": 344.27, "volume": 61898382.0 } ] }, "stop_hunts": { "events": [ { "date": "2026-06-29", "type": "downside stop hunt", "level": "200DMA", "level_price": 280.38, "low": 279.61, "close": 281.49, "next_close": 289.11, "vol_ratio": 1.31 }, { "date": "2026-07-06", "type": "downside stop hunt", "level": "50DMA", "level_price": 308.9, "low": 306.73, "close": 312.39, "next_close": 310.39, "vol_ratio": 1.06 }, { "date": "2026-07-08", "type": "downside stop hunt", "level": "50DMA", "level_price": 308.9, "low": 306.78, "close": 313.12, "next_close": 315.94, "vol_ratio": 0.82 }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "type": "downside stop hunt", "level": "50DMA", "level_price": 308.9, "low": 307.89, "close": 315.94, "next_close": 315.04, "vol_ratio": 0.95 }, { "date": "2026-08-11", "type": "upside stop hunt", "level": "50DMA", "level_price": 308.9, "high": 309.97, "close": 304.91, "next_close": 302.25, "vol_ratio": 0.74 } ], "count": 9, "implication": "CO actively engineering liquidity — confirms active smart money presence" }, "four_master": { "duan_yongping": { "score": 3.5, "rating": 3.0, "max": 6, "details": [ "→ 行业阈值: 科技软件：高毛利护城河，低杠杆优先", "⚠️ 毛利率 48.7% — 中等定价能力", "✅ ROE 148.8% > 20% 行业优质线", "⚠️ ROE/ROA=5.5x > 4 — ROE靠杠杆驱动，非运营质量，衰退期脆弱", "? D/E — 数据缺失", "? OCF/NI — 数据缺失", "✅ 净利率 27.6% > 10%", "✅ 营收增速 16.4% > 5%" ], "industry_profile": "科技软件：高毛利护城河，低杠杆优先" }, "buffett": { "score": 0, "rating": 1.0, "max": 4, "details": [ "❌ PEG 2.46 > 2 — 为增长付出过高溢价", "→ PE交叉验证: 33.2（主要依赖PEG评分）", "⚠️ EV/EBITDA 26.7x > 20 — 高溢价" ] }, "munger": { "score": 3.0, "rating": 4.0, "max": 4.5, "details": [ "✅ 无明显财务困境信号", "❌ 杠杆质量检查失败 ROE/ROA=5.5x", "⚠️ 毛利率 49% — 中等竞争地位", "✅ 无明显管理层红旗", "✅ 盈利和营收双增长 — 护城河完好" ], "risks": [ "⚠️ ROE/ROA=5.5x > 4 — ROE由杠杆驱动而非运营，衰退期脆弱" ] }, "lilu": { "score": 3.5, "rating": 5.0, "max": 4, "details": [ "✅ Revenue +16% — expanding", "✅ Earnings +29%", "⚠️ Beta 1.09", "⚠️ Sector \"TECHNOLOGY\" — complex, requires deep expertise", "✅ In TECHNOLOGY with strong growth — aligned with progress" ] }, "composite": 3.2, "coverage": "high", "coverage_note": "full（核心字段覆盖88%，缺失字段视为未知，不视为无风险）", "owner_earnings": { "method": "", "owner_earnings": null, "oe_yield": null, "risk_free_comparison": null, "details": [] }, "dcf": { "method": "DCF (FCF三情景)", "scenarios": {}, "probability_weighted_value": null, "margin_of_safety": null, "recommendation": null, "caveats": [ "亏损或无FCF股票建议用PS/EV-Sales估值替代" ], "sanity_check": { "status": "not_checked", "warnings": [] }, "error": "FCF非正，DCF不适用" }, "breakdown": { "段永平_商业模式": 3.0, "巴菲特_估值": 1.0, "芒格_风险": 4.0, "李录_确定性": 5.0 }, "industry_profile": "科技软件：高毛利护城河，低杠杆优先" }, "fundamental_quality": { "status": "complete", "coverage_ratio": 0.88, "present_fields": [ "trailingPE", "forwardPE", "revenueGrowth", "earningsGrowth", "returnOnEquity", "grossMargins", "profitMargins" ], "missing_fields": [ "debtToEquity" ], "industry_key": "technology", "industry_required_metrics": [ "arr", "netRevenueRetention", "customerConcentration", "freeCashflow" ], "industry_available_metrics": {}, "industry_missing_metrics": [ "arr", "netRevenueRetention", "customerConcentration", "freeCashflow" ], "flags": [ "ROE可能主要由杠杆驱动，不能直接视为经营质量" ], "caveats": [ "缺失字段代表未知，不代表没有风险" ] }, "market_regime": { "status": "unavailable", "benchmark": null, "regime": "unknown", "trend": "unknown", "sma50": null, "sma200": null, "return_20d_pct": null, "return_60d_pct": null, "annualized_volatility_pct": null, "position_size_multiplier": 1.0, "caveats": [ "基准数据少于60个交易日，无法可靠判断市场状态" ] }, "relative_strength": { "status": "unavailable", "benchmark": null, "windows": {}, "trend": "unknown", "rank": null, "caveats": [ "缺少足够的标的或基准指数数据，未计算相对强度" ] }, "event_overlay": { "status": "available", "coverage": "partial", "risk_level": "unknown", "catalysts": [], "risks": [], "news": [ { "headline": "Explore the top gainers and losers within the dow jones index in today's session.", "source": "ChartMill", "date": "2026-08-19", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=93ae485a341815fe23fcf7ff4561ae7f48c8b2dacec60a5793cc677ac3351659", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Curious about the most active S&P500 stocks in today's session?", "source": "ChartMill", "date": "2026-08-19", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=24c9996a10530fa6a0427d69ff6a313d93278a413a4647420282430a58033efa", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Which dow jones stocks are moving on Tuesday?", "source": "ChartMill", "date": "2026-08-19", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=c403cfdc8e76b95c2c482fae3fa9b3d407ffa166cf0ae935a0f4797898d64f03", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "US Debt Nearing $40T; Home Depot earnings Better Than Expected", "source": "Benzinga", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=fc95bb776035a8a99f006e588d26997bf8c8186e805418709d8338d1a9d649c2", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Apple overhauls Europe app store fees to resolve payments clash", "source": "CNBC", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=8fa782bfff7fdb4ff64cca3fffbd1b5745f2e8a193855905744ee87b7e54aacc", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Apple Says Changes To Business Terms For Apps In The EU Effective October 1; Commission Will Be 15% In EU For App Store Apps That Link Out Of The App To Complete Purchases; Expanding Who Is Eligible To Operate Alternative App Marketplace Or Distribute Apps Via Web In The EU; Developers Can Offer Apple In-app Purchase With Alternative Payment Options Which Had Not Previously Been Permitted In EU; Adds EU Child Safety Measures Including Parental Gates For Users Under 18 On Alternative Payments", "source": "Benzinga", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=210869e5fa68eea229a5449fa003c5b75a1676d0aa3e085e277879982dc5b8ac", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Apple Announces Changes For Apps In The European Union; Says In EU Core Technology Fee To Be Replaced By 5% Core Technology Commission On Digital Transactions Outside App Store; App Store Apps Using Apple In-app Purchase To Pay 26% Commission In EU; Adjusting Commission Rates In EU Across App Store, Alternative App Payments & Alternatively Distributed Apps; Commission Will Be 20% In EU For App Store Apps Using Alternative Payment Processing", "source": "Benzinga", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=95032843fd47dc29d357a3e1c5eb2862fda8f59404f99b78f0197daa1858ebac", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Buy Now, Pay Later Giant Klarna Sounds Alarm On German Shoppers, Cuts 2026 Volume Outlook", "source": "Benzinga", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=9026fd99677447c51186e33c78f0d52db8f5811fbf2e740936a6cf9e43afca34", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Apple’s Foldable iPhone is an ‘Underappreciated’ Opportunity That Could Send AAPL Stock Soaring, Says Analyst — 14 Million Units Seen Selling by 2027", "source": "Benzinga", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=516a5733bde5ca3ee85546f1abe2973afbe5aca2be036665dfff4a23059813be", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "AI Is Not A Bubble: 4 Income Ideas To Ride The Wave", "source": "SeekingAlpha", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=77453322fe1810b5de21ec7eeeb1b8a7a5d439d60f9c8386cc5c4778857532e8", "category": "company" } ], "sentiment": { "available": false, "note": "Finnhub free tier does not include social sentiment (requires premium plan)" }, "earnings": [ { "period": null, "date": "2026-10-28", "actual": null, "estimate": null, "surprise": null, "surprise_percent": null, "symbol": "AAPL", "status": "upcoming", "days_from_today": 70 }, { "period": "2026-06-30", "date": "2026-06-30", "actual": 1.91, "estimate": 1.9271, "surprise": -0.0171, "surprise_percent": -0.8873, "symbol": "AAPL", "status": "historical", "days_from_today": -50 }, { "period": "2026-03-31", "date": "2026-03-31", "actual": 2.01, "estimate": 1.9884, "surprise": 0.0216, "surprise_percent": 1.0863, "symbol": "AAPL", "status": "historical", "days_from_today": -141 }, { "period": "2025-12-31", "date": "2025-12-31", "actual": 2.84, "estimate": 2.7257, "surprise": 0.1143, "surprise_percent": 4.1934, "symbol": "AAPL", 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stocks in today's session?", "source": "ChartMill", "date": "2026-08-19", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=24c9996a10530fa6a0427d69ff6a313d93278a413a4647420282430a58033efa", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Which dow jones stocks are moving on Tuesday?", "source": "ChartMill", "date": "2026-08-19", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=c403cfdc8e76b95c2c482fae3fa9b3d407ffa166cf0ae935a0f4797898d64f03", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "US Debt Nearing $40T; Home Depot earnings Better Than Expected", "source": "Benzinga", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=fc95bb776035a8a99f006e588d26997bf8c8186e805418709d8338d1a9d649c2", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Apple overhauls Europe app store fees to resolve payments clash", "source": "CNBC", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=8fa782bfff7fdb4ff64cca3fffbd1b5745f2e8a193855905744ee87b7e54aacc", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Apple Says Changes To Business Terms For Apps In The EU Effective October 1; Commission Will Be 15% In EU For App Store Apps That Link Out Of The App To Complete Purchases; Expanding Who Is Eligible To Operate Alternative App Marketplace Or Distribute Apps Via Web In The EU; Developers Can Offer Apple In-app Purchase With Alternative Payment Options Which Had Not Previously Been Permitted In EU; Adds EU Child Safety Measures Including Parental Gates For Users Under 18 On Alternative Payments", "source": "Benzinga", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=210869e5fa68eea229a5449fa003c5b75a1676d0aa3e085e277879982dc5b8ac", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Apple Announces Changes For Apps In The European Union; Says In EU Core Technology Fee To Be Replaced By 5% Core Technology Commission On Digital Transactions Outside App Store; App Store Apps Using Apple In-app Purchase To Pay 26% Commission In EU; Adjusting Commission Rates In EU Across App Store, Alternative App Payments & Alternatively Distributed Apps; Commission Will Be 20% In EU For App Store Apps Using Alternative Payment Processing", "source": "Benzinga", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=95032843fd47dc29d357a3e1c5eb2862fda8f59404f99b78f0197daa1858ebac", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Buy Now, Pay Later Giant Klarna Sounds Alarm On German Shoppers, Cuts 2026 Volume Outlook", "source": "Benzinga", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=9026fd99677447c51186e33c78f0d52db8f5811fbf2e740936a6cf9e43afca34", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Apple’s Foldable iPhone is an ‘Underappreciated’ Opportunity That Could Send AAPL Stock Soaring, Says Analyst — 14 Million Units Seen Selling by 2027", "source": "Benzinga", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=516a5733bde5ca3ee85546f1abe2973afbe5aca2be036665dfff4a23059813be", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "AI Is Not A Bubble: 4 Income Ideas To Ride The Wave", "source": "SeekingAlpha", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=77453322fe1810b5de21ec7eeeb1b8a7a5d439d60f9c8386cc5c4778857532e8", "category": "company" } ], "finnhub_sentiment": { "available": false, "note": "Finnhub free tier does not include social sentiment (requires premium plan)" }, "finnhub_earnings": [ { "period": null, "date": "2026-10-28", "actual": null, "estimate": null, "surprise": null, "surprise_percent": null, "symbol": "AAPL", "status": "upcoming" }, { "period": "2026-06-30", "date": "2026-06-30", "actual": 1.91, "estimate": 1.9271, "surprise": -0.0171, "surprise_percent": -0.8873, "symbol": "AAPL", "status": "historical" }, { "period": "2026-03-31", "date": "2026-03-31", "actual": 2.01, "estimate": 1.9884, "surprise": 0.0216, "surprise_percent": 1.0863, "symbol": "AAPL", "status": "historical" }, { "period": "2025-12-31", "date": "2025-12-31", "actual": 2.84, "estimate": 2.7257, "surprise": 0.1143, "surprise_percent": 4.1934, "symbol": "AAPL", "status": "historical" }, { "period": "2025-09-30", "date": "2025-09-30", "actual": 1.85, "estimate": 1.8075, "surprise": 0.0425, "surprise_percent": 2.3513, "symbol": "AAPL", "status": "historical" } ], "portfolio_risk": { "status": "no_portfolio_supplied", "total_value": null, "sector_weights_pct": {}, "concentrated_sectors": {}, "correlations_20d": { "AAPL:TSLA": -0.013, "AAPL:NVDA": -0.287, "TSLA:NVDA": 0.359 }, "warnings": [], "limits": { "max_single_position_pct": 20.0, "max_sector_weight_pct": 35.0, "max_correlation_for_new_add": 0.8 } }, "position_constraint": { "position_cap_pct": 4.23, "stop_distance_pct": 23.62, "risk_at_cap_pct": 1.0, "status": "available", "caveat": "仓位由账户风险预算与结构止损共同约束，不是收益预测", "market_regime_multiplier": 1.0 }, "context": { "horizon": "swing", "holding_status": "empty", "position_pct": 0.0, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "benchmark": null, "objective": "research", "max_single_position_pct": 20.0, "max_sector_weight_pct": 35.0 }, "return_series_20d": [ -0.565, -1.2961, 3.5316, 1.1691, 0.9387, -0.5562, -1.4058, -7.3543, -1.7788, 1.966, 0.5241, 0.4538, 0.2947, -1.5333, -1.0867, -0.8724, 0.9959, 0.2195, -0.1111, 1.4529 ], "trade_plan": { "bias": "NEUTRAL", "entry_zone": { "low": 340.83, "high": 351.16 }, "entry_trigger": "日线收盘站稳 344.27（Creek）上方，量能≥1.3倍20日均量", "stop": 236.79, "stop_basis": "Ice低点 - 1×ATR缓冲（结构性止损）", "adaptive_stop": null, "adaptive_stop_basis": null, "targets": [ { "label": "1.0x", "price": 443.47, "upside_pct": 43.0 }, { "label": "1.618x", "price": 504.78, "upside_pct": 62.8 }, { "label": "2.0x", "price": 542.67, "upside_pct": 75.0 } ], "risk_reward": 0.81, "entry_status": "WAITING_TRIGGER", "trigger_confirmed": false, "trigger_volume_ratio": 1.02, "time_stop_days": 30, "invalidation_signals": [ "日线收盘跌破结构止损位", "突破后连续两日无法站稳Creek且成交量转弱", "确认链出现反向事件（UTAD/SOW/LPSY）" ], "caveats": [ "入场触发条件尚未完成，当前只观察，不立即建仓", "R:R=0.81 < 2.0，自动降级至LONG_WATCH，等待更好入场点", "阶段置信度低，偏向降至NEUTRAL，确认链不足", "多时间框架一致性不足（≤1/3），建议半仓或观望", "空仓计划：入场后30个交易日未按预期发展时执行时间止损复核" ] }, "kelly_position": { "estimated_win_rate_pct": 45.0, "risk_reward_ratio": 0.81, "full_kelly_pct": 0, "half_kelly_pct": 0.0, "recommended_position_pct": 0.0, "risk_per_trade_pct": 0.0, "recommendation": "建议仓位 0.0%（经过单股/行业/市场约束），止损触发亏损约 0.00% 本金", "caveats": [ "胜率为规则推算，非回测统计值，仅供参考", "仓位上限20%防止单股过度集中", "实际仓位须结合个人风险承受力与整体组合" ], "risk_position_cap_pct": 4.23 }, "conviction": { "event_coverage": "partial", "score": 21.6, "grade": "E", "action": "回避 (<35)", "components": { "technical_raw": 17.0, "fundamental": 19.2, "trade_rr": 3, "relative_strength_excess_1m": null, "event_status": "available", "market_regime": "unknown", "raw_before_haircut": 39.2, "haircut_factor": 0.551 }, "haircut_notes": [ "确认链不足(<3环) → ×0.85", "阶段置信度低 → ×0.8", "基准相对强度不可用 → ×0.9", "事件风险未知 → ×0.9" ] }, "quadrant": { "quadrant": "Q1?", "label": "⚠️ 买入/加仓（信号弱，待确认）", "reason": "好公司 + 强趋势 — 阶段置信度低，需确认链/多周期验证后再行动", "low_confidence": true }, "catalyst_warning": null, "forecast_30d": { "status": "available", "horizon_trading_days": 30, "model_version": "rule-v3.6.1", "feature_version": "features-v1", "calibration_version": "9股306窗口3轮回测校准(2026-08-18)", "edge_label": "no_edge", "sample_size": 0, "confidence_interval": null, "direction": "震荡", "direction_reasons": { "momentum_slope_20d": -1.6594, "momentum_vote": "下行", "structure": "Accumulation", "structure_vote": "上行", "bias": "NEUTRAL", "bias_vote": "中性", "total_score": -0.5 }, "probability": 0.5, "probability_basis": "9股306窗口3轮回测校准(2026-08-18)", "target_price": 310.03, "target_pct": 0.0, "basis": "方向信号不足，按区间震荡处理", "clamped": true, "max_monthly_move_pct": 15, "extended_target": null, "reference_range": { "low": 302.25, "high": 339.78 }, "levels": { "creek_high": 344.27, "ice_low": 245.07, "markup_1x": 443.47, "markdown_1x": 145.87 }, "momentum_slope_20d": -1.6594, "caveats": [ "这是基于历史价量与Wyckoff结构的统计推断，不是承诺或投资建议。", "目标价位为方向性参考，未包含未来财报、公告、政策等事件冲击。", "方向概率为定性估计（50%），应结合确认链和事件面复核。", "结构目标 285.14 超出单月合理幅度（±15%），已收敛至 310.03；完整结构目标见 extended_target" ] }, "data_quality": { "quality_score": 100, "recommendation": "clean", "gate_status": "clean", "message": "数据完整性良好，可执行完整分析。", "issues": [], "warnings": [], "structural_issues": [], "missing_fundamentals": [ "debtToEquity" ], "present_fundamentals": [ "trailingPE", "forwardPE", "revenueGrowth", "earningsGrowth", "returnOnEquity", "grossMargins", "profitMargins" ], "coverage_ratio": 0.88, "fundamental_mode": "full", "can_analyze": true, "can_execute": true, "stale_days": 1, "zero_volume_ratio": 0.0, "quality_scope": "OHLCV完整性评分；与 four_master.coverage 及 event_overlay.status 分开", "fm_coverage_explanation": "full（核心字段覆盖88%，缺失字段视为未知，不视为无风险）", "field_sources": { "trailingPE": "yfinance", "dividendYield": "yfinance", "regularMarketPrice": "yfinance", "sharesOutstanding": "yfinance", "impliedSharesOutstanding": "yfinance", "marketCap": "yfinance", "forwardPE": "yfinance", "priceToBook": "yfinance", "revenueGrowth": "alpha_vantage", "earningsGrowth": "alpha_vantage", "returnOnEquity": "alpha_vantage", "grossMargins": "alpha_vantage", "profitMargins": "alpha_vantage", "beta": "alpha_vantage", "sector": "alpha_vantage", "industry": "alpha_vantage", "pegRatio": "alpha_vantage", "returnOnAssets": "alpha_vantage", "operatingMargins": "alpha_vantage", "evToEbitda": "alpha_vantage", "pe_trailing": "yfinance", "pe_forward": "yfinance", "revenue_growth": "alpha_vantage", "earnings_growth": "alpha_vantage", "return_on_equity": "alpha_vantage", "return_on_assets": "alpha_vantage", "gross_margins": "alpha_vantage", "operating_margins": "alpha_vantage", "profit_margins": "alpha_vantage", "market_cap": "yfinance", "current_price": "yfinance", "ev_to_ebitda": "alpha_vantage", "price_to_book": "yfinance", "shares_outstanding": "yfinance", "implied_shares_outstanding": "yfinance", "50ma": "yfinance", "200ma": "yfinance" } }, "data_fetched_at": "2026-08-19 22:28:21", "data_as_of": "2026-08-18", "data_source": "Tiingo (OHLCV, adjusted) + Alpha Vantage (US fundamentals) + Finnhub (news/sentiment)", "ohlcv_source": "tiingo", "ohlcv_adjustment": "adjusted_ohlc", "date_convention": "ISO-8601 trading date; source exchange timezone", "field_sources": { "trailingPE": "yfinance", "dividendYield": "yfinance", "regularMarketPrice": "yfinance", "sharesOutstanding": "yfinance", "impliedSharesOutstanding": "yfinance", "marketCap": "yfinance", "forwardPE": "yfinance", "priceToBook": "yfinance", "revenueGrowth": "alpha_vantage", "earningsGrowth": "alpha_vantage", "returnOnEquity": "alpha_vantage", "grossMargins": "alpha_vantage", "profitMargins": "alpha_vantage", "beta": "alpha_vantage", "sector": "alpha_vantage", "industry": "alpha_vantage", "pegRatio": "alpha_vantage", "returnOnAssets": "alpha_vantage", "operatingMargins": "alpha_vantage", "evToEbitda": "alpha_vantage", "pe_trailing": "yfinance", "pe_forward": "yfinance", "revenue_growth": "alpha_vantage", "earnings_growth": "alpha_vantage", "return_on_equity": "alpha_vantage", "return_on_assets": "alpha_vantage", "gross_margins": "alpha_vantage", "operating_margins": "alpha_vantage", "profit_margins": "alpha_vantage", "market_cap": "yfinance", "current_price": "yfinance", "ev_to_ebitda": "alpha_vantage", "price_to_book": "yfinance", "shares_outstanding": "yfinance", "implied_shares_outstanding": "yfinance", "50ma": "yfinance", "200ma": "yfinance" }, "provider_status": { "ohlcv": "tiingo", "yfinance": "ok", "alpha_vantage": "ok", "finnhub": "ok" }, "event_news": null, "disclaimer": "本结果为技术面研究框架的机械输出，基于历史价量+滞后财报，事件数据缺失时不得解释为没有风险；非投资建议，据此操作风险自负。" }, { "ticker": "TSLA", "name": "Tesla", "current_price": 336.87, "year_high": 498.83, "year_low": 297.38, "year_high_date": "2025-12-22", "year_low_date": "2026-07-29", "pct_from_high": -32.47, "pct_from_low": 13.28, "range_position": 19.6, "ma50": 368.42, "ma200": 404.85, "vs_ma50": -8.56, "vs_ma200": -16.79, "ma_trend": "Strong Downtrend", "pe_trailing": 312.91666, "pe_forward": 155.38075, "beta": 1.827, "dividend_yield": null, "revenue_growth": 0.255, "earnings_growth": -0.03, "debt_to_equity": 18.373, "profit_margins": 0.03671, "market_cap": 1334749691904, "sector": "Consumer Cyclical", "industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "phase": "Mark Down", "phase_detail": "Distribution · Phase A", "phase_confidence": "medium", "wyckoff_schematic": { "structure": "Distribution", "sub_phase": "A", "phase_label": "Phase A — stopping action (PSY/BC/AR)", "sub_phase_label": "Phase A — stopping action (PSY/BC/AR)", "setup": "滞涨阶段：刚出现买盘高潮，勿追高，等区间成形", "next_expected": "在 AR 与 BC 高点之间形成交易区间，进入 Phase B", "confidence": "low", "contradiction": "确认链偏向 Accumulation（acc=3/dist=1）但当前阶段为 Mark Down → 可能是旧结构残留或结构正在转换，置信度下调", "evidence": [ "BC/PSY 滞涨" ], "summary": "Distribution · Phase A — stopping action (PSY/BC/AR)" }, "decision_phase": "Distribution · Phase A — stopping action (PSY/BC/AR)", "phase_conflict": false, "phase_conflict_reason": null, "vol_on_decline_ratio": 1.02, "supply_demand_index": { "latest_20d_ratio": 0.856, "sd_trend": "falling", "interpretation": "Balanced", "daily_ratios": [ 0.886, 0.779, 0.764, 0.73, 0.657, 0.568, 0.6, 0.706, 0.65, 0.738, 0.718, 0.659, 0.676, 0.733, 0.761, 0.773, 0.823, 0.823, 0.862, 0.856 ] }, "recent_trend_20d": -9.93, "vol_trend_20d": -1.91, "quarterly_returns": [ -20.92, 2.27, -2.97, 26.01 ], "top_vol_events": [ { "date": "2025-09-12", "type": "BC", "close": 395.94, "volume": 168156391, "vol_mult": 2.49, "pct_change": 7.36, "idx": 42 }, { "date": "2025-09-15", "type": "HIGH_VOL", "close": 410.04, "volume": 163823667, "vol_mult": 2.42, "pct_change": 3.56, "idx": 43 }, { "date": "2025-07-24", "type": "SC", "close": 305.3, "volume": 156966023, "vol_mult": 2.32, "pct_change": -8.2, "idx": 7 }, { "date": "2025-07-25", "type": "HIGH_VOL", "close": 316.06, "volume": 148227027, "vol_mult": 2.19, "pct_change": 3.52, "idx": 8 }, { "date": "2025-10-02", "type": "SC", "close": 436.0, "volume": 137008950, "vol_mult": 2.02, "pct_change": -5.11, "idx": 56 } ], "post_climax_analysis": [ { "event_date": "2025-09-12", "event_type": "BC", "next_date": "2025-09-15", "next_pct": 3.56, "next_vol_mult": 2.42 }, { "event_date": "2025-09-15", "event_type": "HIGH_VOL", "next_date": "2025-09-16", "next_pct": 2.82, "next_vol_mult": 1.54 }, { "event_date": "2025-07-24", "event_type": "SC", "next_date": "2025-07-25", "next_pct": 3.52, "next_vol_mult": 2.19 }, { "event_date": "2025-07-25", "event_type": "HIGH_VOL", "next_date": "2025-07-28", "next_pct": 3.02, "next_vol_mult": 1.67 }, { "event_date": "2025-10-02", "event_type": "SC", "next_date": "2025-10-03", "next_pct": -1.42, "next_vol_mult": 1.97 } ], "effort_vs_result": { "date": "2025-09-12", "volume_mult": 2.49, "price_change_pct": 7.36, "interpretation": "BC" }, "trading_range_60d": { "high": 445.6, "low": 297.38, "range_pct": 49.84 }, "creek_ice": { "creek": { "high": 453.4, "low": 432.86, "confidence": "moderate" }, "ice": { "high": 337.24, "low": 297.38, "confidence": "low" }, "price_vs_creek": "below_zone -22.2%", "price_vs_ice": "in_zone 99.1%" }, "cause_effect": { "trading_range": { "high": 453.4, "low": 297.38, "width_pct": 52.5, "cause_volume_multiplier": 1.0 }, "markup_targets": [ { "level": "1.0x", "price": 609.42, "pct_from_current": 80.9 }, { "level": "1.618x", "price": 705.84, "pct_from_current": 109.5 }, { "level": "2.0x", "price": 765.44, "pct_from_current": 127.2 } ], "markdown_targets": [ { "level": "1.0x", "price": 141.36, "pct_from_current": -58.0 }, { "level": "1.618x", "price": 44.94, "pct_from_current": -86.7 }, { "level": "2.0x", "price": -14.66, "pct_from_current": -104.4 } ], "strongest_sos": { "date": "2026-07-30", "close": 308.85, "pct": 3.5297666934835172, "vol_ratio": 0.7292529701001316 }, "strongest_sow": { "date": "2026-07-23", "close": 319.69, "pct": 14.52367583754445, "vol_ratio": 2.2182727250759027 } }, "pnf_target": { "method": "P&F横向计数法（简化估算）", "box_size": 3.754, "box_size_pct": 1.0, "reversal_boxes": 3, "estimated_columns": 25, "range_high": 453.4, "range_low": 297.38, "target_distance": 281.54, "markup_target": 734.94, "markup_upside_pct": 118.2, "markdown_target": 15.84, "markdown_downside_pct": -95.3, "note": "简化估算；精确P&F需逐笔构建。与cause_effect结果交叉验证：二者一致时置信度更高。" }, "multi_timeframe": { "monthly": { "trend": "Strong Bear", "change_pct": -17.6, "lookback_days": 120 }, "weekly": { "position_pct": 28.3, "structure": "Lower half — Accumulation Phase B or Mark Down", "volume_trend": "contracting", "weeks_analyzed": 12 }, "daily": { "position_pct": 47.7, "volume_trend": "fading", "signal": "Neutral — no clear daily signal" }, "alignment": "No clear alignment — stay out, wait for clarity", "bullish_count": 0, "bearish_count": 1, "monthly_veto": false }, "confirmation_chain": { "confirmed_links": 3, "dominant_structure": "accumulation", "confidence": "partial", "note": "", "accumulation": { "chain": { "SC": true, "SC_context": "post_distribution: 此SC出现在分布阶段后，是Mark Down中的卖出高潮，尚不构成积累起点；需等AR→ST序列才能确认积累Phase A", "AR": { "found": true, "date": "2025-07-25", "pct": 3.52 }, "ST": { "found": true, "date": "2025-07-29", "vol_ratio": 1.29 }, "Spring": { "found": false }, "SOS": { "found": false }, "BUEC": { "found": false }, "LPS": { "found": false }, "JOC": { "found": false } }, "chain_complete": 3, "verdict": "Chain partial — key links present but gaps remain" }, "distribution": { "chain": { "BC": true, "AR": { "found": false }, "ST": { "found": false }, "UTAD": { "found": false }, "SOW": { "found": false }, "LPSY": { "found": false } }, "chain_complete": 1, "verdict": "Chain incomplete — insufficient confirmation for Distribution" } }, "ps_psy": { "PS": { "date": "2025-09-05", "close": 350.84, "vol_ratio": 1.61, "decline_pct": 21.3, "close_position": 0.55 }, "PSY": { "date": "2025-09-15", "close": 410.04, "vol_ratio": 2.42, "advance_pct": 37.9, "close_position": 0.33 } }, "spring_classification": { "type": "Shakeout", "events": [ { "date": "2025-08-01", "low": 297.82, "pct_below_sc": 0.9, "vol_ratio": 1.32, "recovery_date": "2025-08-01", "recovery_close": 302.63 } ], "interpretation": "Shakeout detected: 2025-08-01 broke SC low by 0.9%, recovered by 2025-08-01. Volume 1.32x avg (aggressive washout). BUY but wait for LPS confirmation.", "signal": "BUY_WAIT_CONFIRM" }, "co_intent": { "phase": "Mark Down", "co_goal": "Either short or waiting to re-enter at lower prices", "co_behavior": "Sell rallies, let price decline, no support", "retail_behavior": "Panic, capitulation, averaging down", "verification": "Mark Down without confirmed distribution — may be correction, not trend change", "contradiction": null }, "trapped_traders": { "events": [ { "date": "2026-06-05", "type": "False breakdown (trapped sellers)", "breakdown_level": 393.63, "breakdown_close": 391.0, "next_close": 408.95, "stop_cluster_above": 405.44, "fuel_for": "Short-term rally", "severity": "moderate" }, { "date": "2026-06-10", "type": "False breakdown (trapped sellers)", "breakdown_level": 384.24, "breakdown_close": 381.59, "next_close": 399.15, "stop_cluster_above": 395.77, "fuel_for": "Short-term rally", "severity": "moderate" }, { "date": "2026-07-29", "type": "False breakdown (trapped sellers)", "breakdown_level": 300.69, "breakdown_close": 298.32, "next_close": 308.85, "stop_cluster_above": 309.71, "fuel_for": "Short-term rally", "severity": "moderate" } ], "active_traps": [ { "date": "2026-07-29", "type": "False breakdown (trapped sellers)", "breakdown_level": 300.69, "breakdown_close": 298.32, "next_close": 308.85, "stop_cluster_above": 309.71, "fuel_for": "Short-term rally", "severity": "moderate" } ], "summary": "3 false breakouts in last 60 days" }, "character_change": { "detected": false, "changes": [], "quarterly_metrics": [ { "period": "2026-05-22 to 2026-08-18", "up_down_vol_ratio": 0.976, "avg_pullback_pct": 7.06, "avg_up_streak": 1, "avg_down_streak": 1 }, { "period": "2026-02-26 to 2026-05-21", "up_down_vol_ratio": 1.019, "avg_pullback_pct": 5.31, "avg_up_streak": 1, "avg_down_streak": 1 }, { "period": "2025-11-28 to 2026-02-25", "up_down_vol_ratio": 1.063, "avg_pullback_pct": 4.74, "avg_up_streak": 1, "avg_down_streak": 1 }, { "period": "2025-09-04 to 2025-11-26", "up_down_vol_ratio": 1.003, "avg_pullback_pct": 4.78, "avg_up_streak": 1, "avg_down_streak": 1 } ], "interpretation": "No structural change detected — phase continuity likely" }, "volume_by_price": { "window": "2026-02-26 to 2026-08-18", "price_range": "297.38 - 453.4", "current_zone": "Normal volume zone", "HVN": [ { "price_low": 390.99, "price_high": 398.79, "volume": 882161429.0 }, { "price_low": 398.79, "price_high": 406.59, "volume": 799277706.0 }, { "price_low": 383.19, "price_high": 390.99, "volume": 630273186.0 } ], "LVN": [ { "price_low": 312.98, "price_high": 320.78, "volume": 114235665.0 }, { "price_low": 297.38, "price_high": 305.18, "volume": 70656689.0 }, { "price_low": 445.6, "price_high": 453.4, "volume": 63988697.0 } ], "bins": [ { "price_low": 297.38, "price_high": 305.18, "volume": 70656689.0 }, { "price_low": 305.18, "price_high": 312.98, "volume": 138734961.0 }, { "price_low": 312.98, "price_high": 320.78, "volume": 114235665.0 }, { "price_low": 320.78, "price_high": 328.58, "volume": 168553155.0 }, { "price_low": 328.58, "price_high": 336.38, "volume": 144177008.0 }, { "price_low": 336.38, "price_high": 344.19, "volume": 201877607.0 }, { "price_low": 344.19, "price_high": 351.99, "volume": 185519378.0 }, { "price_low": 351.99, "price_high": 359.79, "volume": 148793912.0 }, { "price_low": 359.79, "price_high": 367.59, "volume": 306460179.0 }, { "price_low": 367.59, "price_high": 375.39, "volume": 421709527.0 }, { "price_low": 375.39, "price_high": 383.19, "volume": 624056530.0 }, { "price_low": 383.19, "price_high": 390.99, "volume": 630273186.0 }, { "price_low": 390.99, "price_high": 398.79, "volume": 882161429.0 }, { "price_low": 398.79, "price_high": 406.59, "volume": 799277706.0 }, { "price_low": 406.59, "price_high": 414.39, "volume": 423905476.0 }, { "price_low": 414.39, "price_high": 422.2, "volume": 308123338.0 }, { "price_low": 422.2, "price_high": 430.0, "volume": 288454400.0 }, { "price_low": 430.0, "price_high": 437.8, "volume": 181552627.0 }, { "price_low": 437.8, "price_high": 445.6, "volume": 151349654.0 }, { "price_low": 445.6, "price_high": 453.4, "volume": 63988697.0 } ] }, "stop_hunts": { "events": [ { "date": "2026-06-17", "type": "upside stop hunt", "level": "200DMA", "level_price": 404.85, "high": 405.94, "close": 396.38, "next_close": 400.49, "vol_ratio": 0.64 }, { "date": "2026-07-13", "type": "upside stop hunt", "level": "200DMA", "level_price": 404.85, "high": 405.57, "close": 394.76, "next_close": 396.18, "vol_ratio": 0.48 }, { "date": "2026-07-15", "type": "upside stop hunt", "level": "200DMA", "level_price": 404.85, "high": 406.59, "close": 394.46, "next_close": 391.06, "vol_ratio": 0.47 } ], "count": 3, "implication": "CO actively engineering liquidity — confirms active smart money presence" }, "four_master": { "duan_yongping": { "score": 4.0, "rating": 4.0, "max": 6, "details": [ "→ 行业阈值: 消费周期：盈利周期性，杠杆适中", "⚠️ 毛利率 18.9% — 中等定价能力", "❌ ROE 4.7% — 资本效率低", "✅ D/E 18.4% < 60% 行业安全线", "✅ OCF/NI 4.91 — 盈利有现金流支撑", "⚠️ 净利率 3.7% — 薄利", "✅ 营收增速 25.5% > 5%" ], "industry_profile": "消费周期：盈利周期性，杠杆适中" }, "buffett": { "score": 1.0, "rating": 2.0, "max": 4, "details": [ "❌ PEG 5.01 > 2 — 为增长付出过高溢价", "⚠️ OE收益率 0.36% < 4.5% — 安全边际薄", "→ PE交叉验证: 155.4（主要依赖PEG评分）", "⚠️ EV/EBITDA 121.2x > 20 — 高溢价", "✅ D/E 18.4% — 堡垒式资产负债表" ] }, "munger": { "score": 2.5, "rating": 4.0, "max": 4.5, "details": [ "✅ 无明显财务困境信号", "⚠️ ROE/ROA=2.4x — 适度杠杆贡献", "❌ 毛利率 19% — 护城河薄弱，价格接受者风险", "✅ 现金 > 债务 — 保守资产负债表", "⚠️ 增长信号混杂 — 护城河可能侵蚀" ], "risks": [] }, "lilu": { "score": 2.8, "rating": 4.0, "max": 4, "details": [ "✅ Revenue +26% — expanding", "❌ Earnings declining", "⚠️ Beta 1.83 — highly volatile", "→ Sector \"Consumer Cyclical\" — moderate complexity", "✅ In Consumer Cyclical with strong growth — aligned with progress" ] }, "composite": 3.5, "coverage": "high", "coverage_note": "full（核心字段覆盖100%，缺失字段视为未知，不视为无风险）", "owner_earnings": { "method": "FCF-based", "owner_earnings": 4835999744, "oe_yield": 0.36, "risk_free_comparison": "Weak: OE yield 0.36% < 4.5% risk-free", "details": [ "Free Cash Flow: $4,835,999,744", "FCF Yield: 0.36%", "EV/OE: 270.3x", "Net Debt: $-27,444,001,792" ] }, "dcf": { "method": "DCF (FCF三情景)", "scenarios": { "乐观": { "probability": 0.25, "growth_rate_5y_pct": -4.5, "intrinsic_per_share": 14.16, "current_price": 337.945, "margin_of_safety_pct": -2286.9, "verdict": "高估" }, "中性": { "probability": 0.5, "growth_rate_5y_pct": -3.0, "intrinsic_per_share": 15.15, "current_price": 337.945, "margin_of_safety_pct": -2130.7, "verdict": "高估" }, "悲观": { "probability": 0.25, "growth_rate_5y_pct": -1.5, "intrinsic_per_share": 16.2, "current_price": 337.945, "margin_of_safety_pct": -1986.0, "verdict": "高估" } }, "probability_weighted_value": 15.16, "margin_of_safety": -2130.7, "recommendation": "❌ 安全边际 -2130.7% — 高估，回避或减仓", "caveats": [ "基础增速估算值 -3.0%/年（来自财务数据，非分析师预测）" ], "sanity_check": { "status": "warning", "warnings": [ "概率加权估值 15.2 与现价 337.9 差异过大（ratio=0.04），结果高度依赖 FCF 与增长假设，应复核单位/口径后再使用" ] }, "fcf_per_share": 1.2244, "discount_rate_pct": 9.0, "terminal_growth_pct": 2.5 }, "breakdown": { "段永平_商业模式": 4.0, "巴菲特_估值": 2.0, "芒格_风险": 4.0, "李录_确定性": 4.0 }, "industry_profile": "消费周期：盈利周期性，杠杆适中" }, "fundamental_quality": { "status": "complete", "coverage_ratio": 1.0, "present_fields": [ "trailingPE", "forwardPE", "revenueGrowth", "earningsGrowth", "debtToEquity", "returnOnEquity", "grossMargins", "profitMargins" ], "missing_fields": [], "industry_key": "consumer", "industry_required_metrics": [ "sameStoreGrowth", "inventoryDays", "repeatPurchaseRate", "channelInventory" ], "industry_available_metrics": {}, "industry_missing_metrics": [ "sameStoreGrowth", "inventoryDays", "repeatPurchaseRate", "channelInventory" ], "flags": [ "盈利同比下滑" ], "caveats": [] }, "market_regime": { "status": "unavailable", "benchmark": null, "regime": "unknown", "trend": "unknown", "sma50": null, "sma200": null, "return_20d_pct": null, "return_60d_pct": null, "annualized_volatility_pct": null, "position_size_multiplier": 1.0, "caveats": [ "基准数据少于60个交易日，无法可靠判断市场状态" ] }, "relative_strength": { "status": "unavailable", "benchmark": null, "windows": {}, "trend": "unknown", "rank": null, "caveats": [ "缺少足够的标的或基准指数数据，未计算相对强度" ] }, "event_overlay": { "status": "available", "coverage": "partial", "risk_level": "low", "catalysts": [ { "headline": "Tesla Lands 500-Truck Order From Einride in World's Largest Tesla Semi Deployment", "date": "2026-08-18", "source": "Benzinga" } ], "risks": [], "news": [ { "headline": "Curious about the most active S&P500 stocks in today's session?", "source": "ChartMill", "date": "2026-08-19", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=24c9996a10530fa6a0427d69ff6a313d93278a413a4647420282430a58033efa", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "SpaceX: Strap In For A Very Long, Bumpy Ride", "source": "SeekingAlpha", "date": "2026-08-19", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=3f01a044a08cf880e5a99f22f03e83b38322139cc732cf8358d7b2f0322f9073", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Gary Black Says Tesla Bulls On Social Media Are Like College Students Doing 'Tequila Shots'", "source": "Benzinga", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=447d6a489d6659c3dfaaeed3bfbfc33ad8683ebe0e0cad099bb81656e167b5af", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "US Debt Nearing $40T; Home Depot earnings Better Than Expected", "source": "Benzinga", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=fc95bb776035a8a99f006e588d26997bf8c8186e805418709d8338d1a9d649c2", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Tesla: Back Into Negative Free Cash Flow Territory", "source": "SeekingAlpha", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=3dbed6b78494258b44abdec7e6afcd7c8136f90a266968ab9a069c2b82343e49", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Meta, Amylyx, Baidu, Klarna, Coherent, Sandisk & more", "source": "CNBC", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=c72c281529f57a71ec992c40b253a421c53b8fa4b522b66a5a9c0b159bc2e730", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Tesla Semi Deployment Triples Einride's Capacity As 500 Units Join Amazon Freight Push", "source": "Benzinga", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=e017f315763d0097f0f870b24a96f2461c7d66c5812184c26401b90f0ecde5e5", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Tesla Lands 500-Truck Order From Einride in World's Largest Tesla Semi Deployment", "source": "Benzinga", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=47e331be568ad55c139e846dd553c04981c3189b686bb6c2d3db1406dfeb8249", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "GLJ Research Reiterates Sell on Tesla, Maintains $24.86 Price Target", "source": "Benzinga", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=7b39a71794329b7e439708fa19629429ff9e93f2f449aa6a5535957c766e0ebb", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Tesla’s Steering-Wheel-Free Cybercab Could Hit Austin Streets This Month as Elon Musk Ramps Up Robotaxi Push: TSLA Stock Down 1.38% (UPDATED)", "source": "Benzinga", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=f58a4f8212c75bea49b4d9b1df68d7a249dc4c1baa2a85d9ac103fd4d648c4a3", "category": "company" } ], "sentiment": { "available": false, "note": "Finnhub free tier does not include social sentiment (requires premium plan)" }, "earnings": [ { "period": null, "date": "2026-10-20", "actual": null, "estimate": null, "surprise": null, "surprise_percent": null, "symbol": "TSLA", "status": "upcoming", "days_from_today": 62 }, { "period": "2026-06-30", "date": "2026-06-30", "actual": 0.33, "estimate": 0.5191, "surprise": -0.1891, "surprise_percent": -36.4284, "symbol": "TSLA", "status": "historical", "days_from_today": -50 }, { "period": "2026-03-31", "date": "2026-03-31", "actual": 0.41, "estimate": 0.3773, "surprise": 0.0327, "surprise_percent": 8.6668, "symbol": "TSLA", "status": "historical", "days_from_today": -141 }, { "period": "2025-12-31", "date": "2025-12-31", "actual": 0.5, "estimate": 0.4541, "surprise": 0.0459, "surprise_percent": 10.1079, "symbol": "TSLA", "status": "historical", "days_from_today": -231 }, { "period": "2025-09-30", "date": "2025-09-30", "actual": 0.5, "estimate": 0.5586, "surprise": -0.0586, "surprise_percent": -10.4905, "symbol": "TSLA", "status": "historical", "days_from_today": -323 } ], "earnings_surprise": { "sample_size": 4, "positive_ratio": 0.5, "mean_surprise_pct": -7.036, "latest_surprise_pct": -36.4284 }, "event_density": { "news_count": 10, "catalyst_count": 1, "risk_count": 0, "earnings_count": 5, "upcoming_earnings_count": 1 }, "event_factor": -0.1, "earnings_proximity": { "days": 62, "lock_new_entry": false }, "conflicts": [], "caveats": [], "data_as_of": "2026-08-18" }, "finnhub_news": [ { "headline": "Curious about the most active S&P500 stocks in today's session?", "source": 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Flow Territory", "source": "SeekingAlpha", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=3dbed6b78494258b44abdec7e6afcd7c8136f90a266968ab9a069c2b82343e49", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Meta, Amylyx, Baidu, Klarna, Coherent, Sandisk & more", "source": "CNBC", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=c72c281529f57a71ec992c40b253a421c53b8fa4b522b66a5a9c0b159bc2e730", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Tesla Semi Deployment Triples Einride's Capacity As 500 Units Join Amazon Freight Push", "source": "Benzinga", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=e017f315763d0097f0f870b24a96f2461c7d66c5812184c26401b90f0ecde5e5", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Tesla Lands 500-Truck Order From Einride in World's Largest Tesla Semi Deployment", "source": "Benzinga", "date": "2026-08-18", "url": 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"这是基于历史价量与Wyckoff结构的统计推断，不是承诺或投资建议。", "目标价位为方向性参考，未包含未来财报、公告、政策等事件冲击。", "方向概率为定性估计（50%），应结合确认链和事件面复核。", "结构目标 350.68 超出单月合理幅度（±15%），已收敛至 336.87；完整结构目标见 extended_target" ] }, "data_quality": { "quality_score": 100, "recommendation": "clean", "gate_status": "clean", "message": "数据完整性良好，可执行完整分析。", "issues": [], "warnings": [], "structural_issues": [], "missing_fundamentals": [], "present_fundamentals": [ "trailingPE", "forwardPE", "revenueGrowth", "earningsGrowth", "debtToEquity", "returnOnEquity", "grossMargins", "profitMargins" ], "coverage_ratio": 1.0, "fundamental_mode": "full", "can_analyze": true, "can_execute": true, "stale_days": 1, "zero_volume_ratio": 0.0, "quality_scope": "OHLCV完整性评分；与 four_master.coverage 及 event_overlay.status 分开", "fm_coverage_explanation": "full（核心字段覆盖100%，缺失字段视为未知，不视为无风险）", "field_sources": { "industry": "yfinance", "sector": "yfinance", "beta": "yfinance", "trailingPE": "yfinance", "forwardPE": "yfinance", "marketCap": "yfinance", "profitMargins": "yfinance", "sharesOutstanding": "yfinance", "impliedSharesOutstanding": "yfinance", "priceToBook": "yfinance", "pegRatio": "yfinance", "currentPrice": "yfinance", "debtToEquity": "yfinance", "returnOnAssets": "yfinance", "returnOnEquity": "yfinance", "earningsGrowth": "yfinance", "revenueGrowth": "yfinance", "grossMargins": "yfinance", "operatingMargins": "yfinance", "regularMarketPrice": "yfinance", "evToEbitda": "alpha_vantage", "pe_trailing": "yfinance", "pe_forward": "yfinance", "revenue_growth": "yfinance", "earnings_growth": "yfinance", "debt_to_equity": "yfinance", "return_on_equity": "yfinance", "return_on_assets": "yfinance", "gross_margins": "yfinance", "operating_margins": "yfinance", "profit_margins": "yfinance", "market_cap": "yfinance", "current_price": "yfinance", "ev_to_ebitda": "alpha_vantage", "price_to_book": "yfinance", "shares_outstanding": "yfinance", "implied_shares_outstanding": "yfinance", "50ma": "yfinance", "200ma": "yfinance" } }, "data_fetched_at": "2026-08-19 22:28:21", "data_as_of": "2026-08-18", "data_source": "Tiingo (OHLCV, adjusted) + Alpha Vantage (US fundamentals) + Finnhub (news/sentiment)", "ohlcv_source": "tiingo", "ohlcv_adjustment": "adjusted_ohlc", "date_convention": "ISO-8601 trading date; source exchange timezone", "field_sources": { "industry": "yfinance", "sector": "yfinance", "beta": "yfinance", "trailingPE": "yfinance", "forwardPE": "yfinance", "marketCap": "yfinance", "profitMargins": "yfinance", "sharesOutstanding": "yfinance", "impliedSharesOutstanding": "yfinance", "priceToBook": "yfinance", "pegRatio": "yfinance", "currentPrice": "yfinance", "debtToEquity": "yfinance", "returnOnAssets": "yfinance", "returnOnEquity": "yfinance", "earningsGrowth": "yfinance", "revenueGrowth": "yfinance", "grossMargins": "yfinance", "operatingMargins": "yfinance", "regularMarketPrice": "yfinance", "evToEbitda": "alpha_vantage", "pe_trailing": "yfinance", "pe_forward": "yfinance", "revenue_growth": "yfinance", "earnings_growth": "yfinance", "debt_to_equity": "yfinance", "return_on_equity": "yfinance", "return_on_assets": "yfinance", "gross_margins": "yfinance", "operating_margins": "yfinance", "profit_margins": "yfinance", "market_cap": "yfinance", "current_price": "yfinance", "ev_to_ebitda": "alpha_vantage", "price_to_book": "yfinance", "shares_outstanding": "yfinance", "implied_shares_outstanding": "yfinance", "50ma": "yfinance", "200ma": "yfinance" }, "provider_status": { "ohlcv": "tiingo", "yfinance": "ok", "alpha_vantage": "ok", "finnhub": "ok" }, "event_news": null, "disclaimer": "本结果为技术面研究框架的机械输出，基于历史价量+滞后财报，事件数据缺失时不得解释为没有风险；非投资建议，据此操作风险自负。" }, { "ticker": "NVDA", "name": "NVIDIA", "current_price": 219.74, "year_high": 236.27, "year_low": 163.86, "year_high_date": "2026-05-14", "year_low_date": "2025-09-05", "pct_from_high": -7.0, "pct_from_low": 34.1, "range_position": 77.2, "ma50": 206.94, "ma200": 195.1, "vs_ma50": 6.19, "vs_ma200": 12.63, "ma_trend": "Strong Uptrend", "pe_trailing": 33.271053, "pe_forward": 16.928484, "beta": 2.215, "dividend_yield": 0.46, "revenue_growth": 0.852, "earnings_growth": 2.145, "debt_to_equity": 6.555, "profit_margins": 0.62966, "market_cap": 5262254014464, "sector": "Technology", "industry": "Semiconductors", "phase": "Mark Up", "phase_detail": "确认链不足（1环<3）→ 置信度下调 | Accumulation · Phase C", "phase_confidence": "low", "wyckoff_schematic": { "structure": "Accumulation", "sub_phase": "C", "phase_label": "Phase C — Spring/Shakeout (supply test)", "sub_phase_label": "Phase C — Spring/Shakeout (supply test)", "setup": "Spring 后是教科书级低吸点：止损放 Spring 低点下方，博弈 SOS 启动", "next_expected": "Spring 后应出现放量反弹（SOS 雏形），确认 CO 已完成洗盘", "confidence": "low", "contradiction": null, "evidence": [ "SC/PS 止跌", "Phase C 测试(Spring)" ], "summary": "Accumulation · Phase C — Spring/Shakeout (supply test)" }, "decision_phase": "Accumulation · Phase C — Spring/Shakeout (supply test)", "phase_conflict": false, "phase_conflict_reason": null, 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"moderate" }, "ice": { "high": 199.34, "low": 189.8, "confidence": "high" }, "price_vs_creek": "in_zone 222.0%", "price_vs_ice": "above_zone +10.2%" }, "cause_effect": { "trading_range": { "high": 236.27, "low": 164.08, "width_pct": 44.0, "cause_volume_multiplier": 1.0 }, "markup_targets": [ { "level": "1.0x", "price": 308.46, "pct_from_current": 40.4 }, { "level": "1.618x", "price": 353.07, "pct_from_current": 60.7 }, { "level": "2.0x", "price": 380.65, "pct_from_current": 73.2 } ], "markdown_targets": [ { "level": "1.0x", "price": 91.89, "pct_from_current": -58.2 }, { "level": "1.618x", "price": 47.28, "pct_from_current": -78.5 }, { "level": "2.0x", "price": 19.7, "pct_from_current": -91.0 } ], "strongest_sos": { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 210.96, "pct": 4.033928395305261, "vol_ratio": 0.9499620630527832 }, "strongest_sow": { "date": "2026-07-27", "close": 196.51, "pct": 4.99419841423323, "vol_ratio": 0.9879340282303193 } }, "pnf_target": { "method": "P&F横向计数法（简化估算）", "box_size": 2.002, "box_size_pct": 1.0, "reversal_boxes": 3, "estimated_columns": 21, "range_high": 236.27, "range_low": 164.08, "target_distance": 126.11, "markup_target": 362.38, "markup_upside_pct": 64.9, "markdown_target": 37.97, "markdown_downside_pct": -82.7, "note": "简化估算；精确P&F需逐笔构建。与cause_effect结果交叉验证：二者一致时置信度更高。" }, "multi_timeframe": { "monthly": { "trend": "Strong Bull", "change_pct": 19.0, "lookback_days": 120 }, "weekly": { "position_pct": 83.4, "structure": "Near range high — potential Distribution or Mark Up extension", "volume_trend": "neutral", "weeks_analyzed": 12 }, "daily": { "position_pct": 78.4, "volume_trend": "fading", "signal": "Neutral — no clear daily signal" }, "alignment": "One of three bullish — mixed signals, half position only", "bullish_count": 1, "bearish_count": 0, "monthly_veto": false }, "confirmation_chain": { "confirmed_links": 1, "dominant_structure": "accumulation", "confidence": "insufficient", "note": "Confirmation chain has <3 links — treat phase as technical-only reference, not a confirmed Wyckoff structure.", "accumulation": { "chain": { "SC": true, "SC_context": "accumulation_start: 正常积累起点SC", "AR": { "found": false }, "ST": { "found": false }, "Spring": { "found": false }, "SOS": { "found": false }, "BUEC": { "found": false }, "LPS": { "found": false }, "JOC": { "found": false } }, "chain_complete": 1, "verdict": "Chain incomplete — insufficient confirmation for Accumulation" }, "distribution": { "chain": { "BC": false, "AR": { "found": false }, "ST": { "found": false }, "UTAD": { "found": false }, "SOW": { "found": false }, "LPSY": { "found": false } }, "chain_complete": 0, "verdict": "Chain incomplete — insufficient confirmation for Distribution" } }, "ps_psy": { "PS": { "date": "2025-09-22", "close": 183.38, "vol_ratio": 1.6, "decline_pct": 21.0, "close_position": 0.9 }, "PSY": null }, "spring_classification": { "type": "Spring", "events": [ { "date": "2026-03-10", "low": 181.79, "pct_below_sc": 1.2, "vol_ratio": 1.06, "recovery_date": "2026-03-10", "recovery_close": 184.55 }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "low": 180.09, "pct_below_sc": 2.2, "vol_ratio": 0.88, "recovery_date": "2026-04-10", "recovery_close": 188.41 }, { "date": "2026-04-09", "low": 180.41, "pct_below_sc": 2.0, "vol_ratio": 0.69, "recovery_date": "2026-04-10", "recovery_close": 188.41 } ], "interpretation": "Spring detected: 2026-04-09 broke SC low by 2.0%, recovered by 2026-04-10. Volume 0.69x avg (< 50% of SC vol). STRONG ACCUMULATION SIGNAL — CO engineered false breakdown to trigger stops. Buy on LPS pullback.", "signal": "STRONG_BUY" }, "co_intent": { "phase": "Mark Up", "co_goal": "Let position run, manage pullbacks", "co_behavior": "Support dips, allow price to rise, absorb weak-hand selling", "retail_behavior": "Trend following, adding on dips", "verification": "Mark Up without confirmed accumulation base — caution", "contradiction": null }, "trapped_traders": { "events": [ { "date": "2026-06-02", "type": "UTAD (trapped buyers)", "breakout_level": 216.58, "breakout_close": 222.57, "next_close": 214.5, "stop_cluster_below": 210.08, "fuel_for": "Mark Down", "severity": "high" }, { "date": "2026-06-04", "type": "UTAD (trapped buyers)", "breakout_level": 216.58, "breakout_close": 218.66, "next_close": 205.1, "stop_cluster_below": 210.08, "fuel_for": "Mark Down", "severity": "moderate" }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "type": "False breakdown (trapped sellers)", "breakdown_level": 206.26, "breakdown_close": 205.1, "next_close": 208.64, "stop_cluster_above": 212.45, "fuel_for": "Short-term rally", "severity": "moderate" }, { "date": "2026-07-29", "type": "False breakdown (trapped sellers)", "breakdown_level": 191.14, "breakdown_close": 190.01, "next_close": 195.04, "stop_cluster_above": 196.87, "fuel_for": "Short-term rally", "severity": "moderate" }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "type": "False breakout (trapped buyers)", "breakout_level": 223.63, "breakout_close": 223.96, "next_close": 217.55, "stop_cluster_below": 216.92, "fuel_for": "Short-term decline", "severity": "moderate" } ], "active_traps": [ { "date": "2026-06-04", "type": "UTAD (trapped buyers)", "breakout_level": 216.58, "breakout_close": 218.66, "next_close": 205.1, "stop_cluster_below": 210.08, "fuel_for": "Mark Down", "severity": "moderate" }, { "date": "2026-07-29", "type": "False breakdown (trapped sellers)", "breakdown_level": 191.14, "breakdown_close": 190.01, "next_close": 195.04, "stop_cluster_above": 196.87, "fuel_for": "Short-term rally", "severity": "moderate" }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "type": "False breakout (trapped buyers)", "breakout_level": 223.63, "breakout_close": 223.96, "next_close": 217.55, "stop_cluster_below": 216.92, "fuel_for": "Short-term decline", "severity": "moderate" } ], "summary": "5 false breakouts in last 60 days" }, "character_change": { "detected": true, "changes": [ "Pullback depth shift: pullbacks deepening (+36%)" ], "quarterly_metrics": [ { "period": "2026-05-22 to 2026-08-18", "up_down_vol_ratio": 0.955, "avg_pullback_pct": 4.63, "avg_up_streak": 1, "avg_down_streak": 1 }, { "period": "2026-02-26 to 2026-05-21", "up_down_vol_ratio": 0.958, "avg_pullback_pct": 4.26, "avg_up_streak": 1, "avg_down_streak": 1 }, { "period": "2025-11-28 to 2026-02-25", "up_down_vol_ratio": 1.072, "avg_pullback_pct": 3.48, "avg_up_streak": 1, "avg_down_streak": 1 }, { "period": "2025-09-04 to 2025-11-26", "up_down_vol_ratio": 0.982, "avg_pullback_pct": 4.74, "avg_up_streak": 1, "avg_down_streak": 1 } ], "interpretation": "ChoCh detected — phase transition in progress" }, "volume_by_price": { "window": "2026-02-26 to 2026-08-18", "price_range": "164.08 - 236.27", "current_zone": "Normal volume zone", "HVN": [ { "price_low": 207.39, "price_high": 211.0, "volume": 1860808678.0 }, { "price_low": 196.57, "price_high": 200.18, "volume": 1701212055.0 }, { "price_low": 200.18, "price_high": 203.78, "volume": 1466036952.0 } ], "LVN": [ { "price_low": 229.05, "price_high": 232.66, "volume": 205938736.0 }, { "price_low": 164.08, "price_high": 167.69, "volume": 199725344.0 }, { "price_low": 232.66, "price_high": 236.27, "volume": 90253904.0 } ], "bins": [ { "price_low": 164.08, "price_high": 167.69, "volume": 199725344.0 }, { "price_low": 167.69, "price_high": 171.3, "volume": 331481622.0 }, { "price_low": 171.3, "price_high": 174.91, "volume": 595273959.0 }, { "price_low": 174.91, "price_high": 178.52, "volume": 1441220010.0 }, { "price_low": 178.52, "price_high": 182.13, "volume": 1300192378.0 }, { "price_low": 182.13, "price_high": 185.74, "volume": 1214463154.0 }, { "price_low": 185.74, "price_high": 189.35, "volume": 540882850.0 }, { "price_low": 189.35, "price_high": 192.96, "volume": 514503027.0 }, { "price_low": 192.96, "price_high": 196.57, "volume": 1137343821.0 }, { "price_low": 196.57, "price_high": 200.18, "volume": 1701212055.0 }, { "price_low": 200.18, "price_high": 203.78, "volume": 1466036952.0 }, { "price_low": 203.78, "price_high": 207.39, "volume": 1392811982.0 }, { "price_low": 207.39, "price_high": 211.0, "volume": 1860808678.0 }, { "price_low": 211.0, "price_high": 214.61, "volume": 1294138948.0 }, { "price_low": 214.61, "price_high": 218.22, "volume": 953786344.0 }, { "price_low": 218.22, "price_high": 221.83, "volume": 1130251288.0 }, { "price_low": 221.83, "price_high": 225.44, "volume": 900547992.0 }, { "price_low": 225.44, "price_high": 229.05, "volume": 477791572.0 }, { "price_low": 229.05, "price_high": 232.66, "volume": 205938736.0 }, { "price_low": 232.66, "price_high": 236.27, "volume": 90253904.0 } ] }, "stop_hunts": { "events": [ { "date": "2026-07-15", "type": "downside stop hunt", "level": "50DMA", "level_price": 206.94, "low": 206.04, "close": 212.5, "next_close": 207.4, "vol_ratio": 0.74 }, { "date": "2026-07-22", "type": "downside stop hunt", "level": "50DMA", "level_price": 206.94, "low": 204.95, "close": 212.06, "next_close": 208.76, "vol_ratio": 0.82 }, { "date": "2026-07-27", "type": "upside stop hunt", "level": "50DMA", "level_price": 206.94, "high": 208.75, "close": 196.51, "next_close": 197.01, "vol_ratio": 0.92 }, { "date": "2026-08-05", "type": "downside stop hunt", "level": "Creek high", "level_price": 216.58, "low": 216.4, "close": 219.22, "next_close": 218.99, "vol_ratio": 0.94 }, { "date": "2026-08-11", "type": "downside stop hunt", "level": "Creek high", "level_price": 216.58, "low": 216.2, "close": 217.5, "next_close": 224.09, "vol_ratio": 0.6 } ], "count": 11, "implication": "CO actively engineering liquidity — confirms active smart money presence" }, "four_master": { "duan_yongping": { "score": 5.5, "rating": 5.0, "max": 6, "details": [ "→ 行业阈值: 半导体：重研发+资本开支，毛利>45%为优", "✅ 毛利率 74.1% > 45% 行业优质线", "✅ ROE 114.3% > 18% 行业优质线", "✅ D/E 6.6% < 40% 行业安全线", "⚠️ OCF/NI 0.79 — 现金转化率一般", "✅ 净利率 63.0% > 10%", "✅ 营收增速 85.2% > 5%" ], "industry_profile": "半导体：重研发+资本开支，毛利>45%为优" }, "buffett": { "score": 2.5, "rating": 4.0, "max": 4, "details": [ "✅ PEG 0.62 < 0.8 — 增长廉价，巴菲特首选区间", "⚠️ OE收益率 0.88% < 4.5% — 安全边际薄", "→ PE交叉验证: 16.9（主要依赖PEG评分）", "⚠️ EV/EBITDA 31.9x > 20 — 高溢价", "✅ D/E 6.6% — 堡垒式资产负债表" ] }, "munger": { "score": 4, "rating": 5.0, "max": 4.5, "details": [ "✅ 无明显财务困境信号", "⚠️ ROE/ROA=2.2x — 适度杠杆贡献", "✅ 毛利率 74% — 强定价权/护城河", "✅ 现金 > 债务 — 保守资产负债表", "✅ 盈利和营收双增长 — 护城河完好" ], "risks": [] }, "lilu": { "score": 3.5, "rating": 5.0, "max": 4, "details": [ "✅ Revenue +85% — expanding", "✅ Earnings +214%", "⚠️ Beta 2.21 — highly volatile", "⚠️ Sector \"Technology\" — complex, requires deep expertise", "✅ In Technology with strong growth — aligned with progress" ] }, "composite": 4.8, "coverage": "high", "coverage_note": "full（核心字段覆盖100%，缺失字段视为未知，不视为无风险）", "owner_earnings": { "method": "FCF-based", "owner_earnings": 46335873024, "oe_yield": 0.88, "risk_free_comparison": "Weak: OE yield 0.88% < 4.5% risk-free", "details": [ "Free Cash Flow: $46,335,873,024", "FCF Yield: 0.88%", "EV/OE: 112.7x", "Net Debt: $-40,357,998,592" ] }, "dcf": { "method": "DCF (FCF三情景)", "scenarios": { "乐观": { "probability": 0.25, "growth_rate_5y_pct": 40.0, "intrinsic_per_share": 127.01, "current_price": 217.205, "margin_of_safety_pct": -71.0, "verdict": "高估" }, "中性": { "probability": 0.5, "growth_rate_5y_pct": 30.0, "intrinsic_per_share": 89.53, "current_price": 217.205, "margin_of_safety_pct": -142.6, "verdict": "高估" }, "悲观": { "probability": 0.25, "growth_rate_5y_pct": 15.0, "intrinsic_per_share": 50.7, "current_price": 217.205, "margin_of_safety_pct": -328.4, "verdict": "高估" } }, "probability_weighted_value": 89.19, "margin_of_safety": -142.6, "recommendation": "❌ 安全边际 -142.6% — 高估，回避或减仓", "caveats": [ "基础增速估算值 30.0%/年（来自财务数据，非分析师预测）" ], "sanity_check": { "status": "ok", "warnings": [] }, "fcf_per_share": 1.913, "discount_rate_pct": 9.0, "terminal_growth_pct": 2.5 }, "breakdown": { "段永平_商业模式": 5.0, "巴菲特_估值": 4.0, "芒格_风险": 5.0, "李录_确定性": 5.0 }, "industry_profile": "半导体：重研发+资本开支，毛利>45%为优" }, "fundamental_quality": { "status": "complete", "coverage_ratio": 1.0, "present_fields": [ "trailingPE", "forwardPE", "revenueGrowth", "earningsGrowth", "debtToEquity", "returnOnEquity", "grossMargins", "profitMargins" ], "missing_fields": [], "industry_key": "semiconductor", "industry_required_metrics": [ "inventoryDays", "capacityUtilization", "averageSellingPrice", "capex" ], "industry_available_metrics": {}, "industry_missing_metrics": [ "inventoryDays", "capacityUtilization", "averageSellingPrice", "capex" ], "flags": [], "caveats": [] }, "market_regime": { "status": "unavailable", "benchmark": null, "regime": "unknown", "trend": "unknown", "sma50": null, "sma200": null, "return_20d_pct": null, "return_60d_pct": null, "annualized_volatility_pct": null, "position_size_multiplier": 1.0, "caveats": [ "基准数据少于60个交易日，无法可靠判断市场状态" ] }, "relative_strength": { "status": "unavailable", "benchmark": null, "windows": {}, "trend": "unknown", "rank": null, "caveats": [ "缺少足够的标的或基准指数数据，未计算相对强度" ] }, "event_overlay": { "status": "available", "coverage": "partial", "risk_level": "medium", "catalysts": [ { "headline": "Lumentum: I Have Truly Underestimated This Beast (Upgrade)", "date": "2026-08-19", "source": "SeekingAlpha" }, { "headline": "Nvidia: Upgrade To Strong Buy On Elongation Of GPU Cycle, Value", "date": "2026-08-19", "source": "SeekingAlpha" } ], "risks": [ { "headline": "AMD: On Dilution And Insider Sales", "date": "2026-08-19", "source": "SeekingAlpha" } ], "news": [ { "headline": "NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) Qualifies as an Affordable Growth Pick", "source": "ChartMill", "date": "2026-08-19", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=c76fb2ffc4b6a48e2bb32a05ecaa356238a074c97e35811359aa83d3f9934d42", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Lumentum: I Have Truly Underestimated This Beast (Upgrade)", "source": "SeekingAlpha", "date": "2026-08-19", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=1e003c23c7b31959e594f897a343da851a6d9067571cda117eae5e45be949f0e", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Wall Street Sinks as 30-Year Yield Hits 19-Year High, Chip Names Crumble", "source": "ChartMill", "date": "2026-08-19", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=62931e0861f4d587e501c84a06cf467fff02e73396bc22fd37f2c5a19c943e4b", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Nvidia: Upgrade To Strong Buy On Elongation Of GPU Cycle, Value", "source": "SeekingAlpha", "date": "2026-08-19", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=09bf27246db2d730d5ebb857c0f57903c8faaa5738e465411f67278caaf51866", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "NVDY Isn't The Fund It Was - Because Nvidia Isn't The Stock It Was", "source": 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"source": "SeekingAlpha", "date": "2026-08-19", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=66ab3affb53046c7710ef217f37050fe03579ce79910d4c241482d9ea6d6c1bc", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Which dow jones stocks are moving on Tuesday?", "source": "ChartMill", "date": "2026-08-19", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=c403cfdc8e76b95c2c482fae3fa9b3d407ffa166cf0ae935a0f4797898d64f03", "category": "company" } ], "sentiment": { "available": false, "note": "Finnhub free tier does not include social sentiment (requires premium plan)" }, "earnings": [ { "period": null, "date": "2026-11-17", "actual": null, "estimate": null, "surprise": null, "surprise_percent": null, "symbol": "NVDA", "status": "upcoming", "days_from_today": 90 }, { "period": null, "date": "2026-08-26", "actual": null, "estimate": null, "surprise": null, "surprise_percent": null, "symbol": "NVDA", "status": "upcoming", "days_from_today": 7 }, { "period": "2026-06-30", "date": "2026-06-30", "actual": 1.87, "estimate": 1.7922, "surprise": 0.0778, "surprise_percent": 4.341, "symbol": "NVDA", "status": "historical", "days_from_today": -50 }, { "period": "2026-03-31", "date": "2026-03-31", "actual": 1.62, "estimate": 1.5634, "surprise": 0.0566, "surprise_percent": 3.6203, "symbol": "NVDA", "status": "historical", "days_from_today": -141 }, { "period": "2025-12-31", "date": "2025-12-31", "actual": 1.3, "estimate": 1.2746, "surprise": 0.0254, "surprise_percent": 1.9928, "symbol": "NVDA", "status": "historical", "days_from_today": -231 }, { "period": "2025-09-30", "date": "2025-09-30", "actual": 1.05, "estimate": 1.0281, "surprise": 0.0219, "surprise_percent": 2.1301, "symbol": "NVDA", "status": "historical", "days_from_today": -323 }, { "date": "2026-08-27", "days_from_today": 8, "source": "provider_calendar" } ], "earnings_surprise": { "sample_size": 4, "positive_ratio": 1.0, "mean_surprise_pct": 3.021, "latest_surprise_pct": 4.341 }, "event_density": { "news_count": 10, "catalyst_count": 2, "risk_count": 1, "earnings_count": 7, "upcoming_earnings_count": 3 }, "event_factor": 0.125, "earnings_proximity": { "days": 7, "lock_new_entry": false }, "conflicts": [], "caveats": [], "data_as_of": "2026-08-18" }, "finnhub_news": [ { "headline": "NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) Qualifies as an Affordable Growth Pick", "source": "ChartMill", "date": "2026-08-19", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=c76fb2ffc4b6a48e2bb32a05ecaa356238a074c97e35811359aa83d3f9934d42", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Lumentum: I Have Truly Underestimated This Beast (Upgrade)", "source": "SeekingAlpha", "date": "2026-08-19", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=1e003c23c7b31959e594f897a343da851a6d9067571cda117eae5e45be949f0e", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Wall Street Sinks as 30-Year Yield Hits 19-Year High, Chip Names Crumble", "source": "ChartMill", "date": "2026-08-19", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=62931e0861f4d587e501c84a06cf467fff02e73396bc22fd37f2c5a19c943e4b", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Nvidia: Upgrade To Strong Buy On Elongation Of GPU Cycle, Value", "source": "SeekingAlpha", "date": "2026-08-19", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=09bf27246db2d730d5ebb857c0f57903c8faaa5738e465411f67278caaf51866", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "NVDY Isn't The Fund It Was - Because Nvidia Isn't The Stock It Was", "source": "SeekingAlpha", "date": "2026-08-19", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=2b56a5687bdc80333f6fced8d708f8cdc6035e7faf00a87c0bf26aa4107159d3", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Explore the top gainers and losers within the dow jones index in today's session.", "source": "ChartMill", "date": "2026-08-19", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=93ae485a341815fe23fcf7ff4561ae7f48c8b2dacec60a5793cc677ac3351659", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Curious about the most active S&P500 stocks in today's session?", "source": "ChartMill", "date": "2026-08-19", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=24c9996a10530fa6a0427d69ff6a313d93278a413a4647420282430a58033efa", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "These stocks are the most active in today's session", "source": "ChartMill", "date": "2026-08-19", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=a9019b0602184916ae548b0f35e6716a4ef414f4aecb062f6fc9e13e326d95e7", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "AMD: On Dilution And Insider Sales", "source": "SeekingAlpha", "date": "2026-08-19", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=66ab3affb53046c7710ef217f37050fe03579ce79910d4c241482d9ea6d6c1bc", "category": "company" }, { "headline": "Which dow jones stocks are moving on Tuesday?", "source": "ChartMill", "date": "2026-08-19", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=c403cfdc8e76b95c2c482fae3fa9b3d407ffa166cf0ae935a0f4797898d64f03", "category": "company" } ], "finnhub_sentiment": { "available": false, "note": "Finnhub free tier does not include social sentiment (requires premium plan)" }, "finnhub_earnings": [ { "period": null, "date": "2026-11-17", "actual": null, "estimate": null, "surprise": null, "surprise_percent": null, "symbol": "NVDA", "status": "upcoming" }, { "period": null, "date": "2026-08-26", "actual": null, "estimate": null, "surprise": null, "surprise_percent": null, "symbol": "NVDA", "status": "upcoming" }, { "period": "2026-06-30", "date": "2026-06-30", "actual": 1.87, "estimate": 1.7922, "surprise": 0.0778, "surprise_percent": 4.341, "symbol": "NVDA", "status": "historical" }, { "period": "2026-03-31", "date": "2026-03-31", "actual": 1.62, "estimate": 1.5634, "surprise": 0.0566, "surprise_percent": 3.6203, "symbol": "NVDA", "status": "historical" }, { "period": "2025-12-31", "date": "2025-12-31", "actual": 1.3, "estimate": 1.2746, "surprise": 0.0254, "surprise_percent": 1.9928, "symbol": "NVDA", "status": "historical" }, { "period": "2025-09-30", "date": "2025-09-30", "actual": 1.05, "estimate": 1.0281, "surprise": 0.0219, "surprise_percent": 2.1301, "symbol": "NVDA", "status": "historical" } ], "portfolio_risk": { "status": "no_portfolio_supplied", "total_value": null, "sector_weights_pct": {}, "concentrated_sectors": {}, "correlations_20d": { "AAPL:TSLA": -0.013, "AAPL:NVDA": -0.287, "TSLA:NVDA": 0.359 }, "warnings": [], "limits": { "max_single_position_pct": 20.0, "max_sector_weight_pct": 35.0, "max_correlation_for_new_add": 0.8 } }, "position_constraint": { "position_cap_pct": 6.02, "stop_distance_pct": 16.62, "risk_at_cap_pct": 1.0, "status": "available", "caveat": "仓位由账户风险预算与结构止损共同约束，不是收益预测", "market_regime_multiplier": 1.0 }, "context": { "horizon": "swing", "holding_status": "empty", "position_pct": 0.0, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "benchmark": null, "objective": "research", "max_single_position_pct": 20.0, "max_sector_weight_pct": 35.0 }, "return_series_20d": [ 2.3011, -1.5562, -0.9197, -4.9942, 0.2544, -3.5531, 2.6472, 2.9276, 2.934, 2.5648, 3.4349, -0.1049, 2.2695, -2.8621, -0.023, 3.0299, 0.54, -0.0621, -0.0666, -2.3421 ], "trade_plan": { "bias": "NEUTRAL", "entry_zone": { "low": 214.41, "high": 220.91 }, "entry_trigger": "日线收盘站稳 216.58（Creek）上方，量能≥1.3倍20日均量", "stop": 183.22, "stop_basis": "Ice低点 - 1×ATR缓冲（结构性止损）", "adaptive_stop": null, "adaptive_stop_basis": null, "targets": [ { "label": "1.0x", "price": 308.46, "upside_pct": 40.4 }, { "label": "1.618x", "price": 353.07, "upside_pct": 60.7 }, { "label": "2.0x", "price": 380.65, "upside_pct": 73.2 } ], "risk_reward": 2.32, "entry_status": "WAITING_TRIGGER", "trigger_confirmed": false, "trigger_volume_ratio": 0.86, "time_stop_days": 30, "invalidation_signals": [ "日线收盘跌破结构止损位", "突破后连续两日无法站稳Creek且成交量转弱", "确认链出现反向事件（UTAD/SOW/LPSY）" ], "caveats": [ "入场触发条件尚未完成，当前只观察，不立即建仓", "阶段置信度低，偏向降至NEUTRAL，确认链不足", "多时间框架一致性不足（≤1/3），建议半仓或观望", "空仓计划：入场后30个交易日未按预期发展时执行时间止损复核" ] }, "kelly_position": { "estimated_win_rate_pct": 50.0, "risk_reward_ratio": 2.32, "full_kelly_pct": 28.4, "half_kelly_pct": 14.2, "recommended_position_pct": 6.0, "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, "recommendation": "建议仓位 6.0%（经过单股/行业/市场约束），止损触发亏损约 1.00% 本金", "caveats": [ "胜率为规则推算，非回测统计值，仅供参考", "仓位上限20%防止单股过度集中", "实际仓位须结合个人风险承受力与整体组合" ], "risk_position_cap_pct": 6.02 }, "conviction": { "event_coverage": "partial", "score": 33.8, "grade": "E", "action": "回避 (<35)", "components": { "technical_raw": 10.0, "fundamental": 33.2, "trade_rr": 12, "relative_strength_excess_1m": null, "event_status": "available", "market_regime": "unknown", "raw_before_haircut": 55.2, "haircut_factor": 0.612 }, "haircut_notes": [ "确认链不足(<3环) → ×0.85", "阶段置信度低 → ×0.8", "基准相对强度不可用 → ×0.9" ] }, "quadrant": { "quadrant": "Q1?", "label": "⚠️ 买入/加仓（信号弱，待确认）", "reason": "好公司 + 强趋势 — 阶段置信度低，需确认链/多周期验证后再行动", "low_confidence": true }, "catalyst_warning": null, "forecast_30d": { "status": "available", "horizon_trading_days": 30, "model_version": "rule-v3.6.1", "feature_version": "features-v1", "calibration_version": "9股306窗口3轮回测校准(2026-08-18)", "edge_label": "weak_edge", "sample_size": 0, "confidence_interval": null, "direction": "上行", "direction_reasons": { "momentum_slope_20d": 1.4545, "momentum_vote": "上行", "structure": "Accumulation", "structure_vote": "上行", "bias": "NEUTRAL", "bias_vote": "中性", "total_score": 1.5 }, "probability": 0.53, "probability_basis": "9股306窗口3轮回测校准(2026-08-18)", "target_price": 241.56, "target_pct": 9.9, "basis": "20日动量外推（收缩0.5）", "clamped": false, "max_monthly_move_pct": 15, "extended_target": 216.58, "reference_range": { "low": 234.98, "high": 248.14 }, "levels": { "creek_high": 216.58, "ice_low": 189.8, "markup_1x": 308.46, "markdown_1x": 91.89 }, "momentum_slope_20d": 1.4545, "caveats": [ "这是基于历史价量与Wyckoff结构的统计推断，不是承诺或投资建议。", "目标价位为方向性参考，未包含未来财报、公告、政策等事件冲击。", "方向概率为定性估计（53%），应结合确认链和事件面复核。" ] }, "data_quality": { "quality_score": 100, "recommendation": "clean", "gate_status": "clean", "message": "数据完整性良好，可执行完整分析。", "issues": [], "warnings": [], "structural_issues": [], "missing_fundamentals": [], "present_fundamentals": [ "trailingPE", "forwardPE", "revenueGrowth", "earningsGrowth", "debtToEquity", "returnOnEquity", "grossMargins", "profitMargins" ], "coverage_ratio": 1.0, "fundamental_mode": "full", "can_analyze": true, "can_execute": true, "stale_days": 1, "zero_volume_ratio": 0.0, "quality_scope": "OHLCV完整性评分；与 four_master.coverage 及 event_overlay.status 分开", "fm_coverage_explanation": "full（核心字段覆盖100%，缺失字段视为未知，不视为无风险）", "field_sources": { "industry": "yfinance", "sector": "yfinance", "dividendYield": "yfinance", "beta": "yfinance", "trailingPE": "yfinance", "forwardPE": "yfinance", "marketCap": "yfinance", "profitMargins": "yfinance", "sharesOutstanding": "yfinance", "impliedSharesOutstanding": "yfinance", "priceToBook": "yfinance", "pegRatio": "yfinance", "currentPrice": "yfinance", "debtToEquity": "yfinance", "returnOnAssets": "yfinance", "returnOnEquity": "yfinance", "earningsGrowth": "yfinance", "revenueGrowth": "yfinance", "grossMargins": "yfinance", "operatingMargins": "yfinance", "regularMarketPrice": "yfinance", "evToEbitda": "alpha_vantage", "pe_trailing": "yfinance", "pe_forward": "yfinance", "revenue_growth": "yfinance", "earnings_growth": "yfinance", "debt_to_equity": "yfinance", "return_on_equity": "yfinance", "return_on_assets": "yfinance", "gross_margins": "yfinance", "operating_margins": "yfinance", "profit_margins": "yfinance", "market_cap": "yfinance", "current_price": "yfinance", "ev_to_ebitda": "alpha_vantage", "price_to_book": "yfinance", "shares_outstanding": "yfinance", "implied_shares_outstanding": "yfinance", "50ma": "yfinance", "200ma": "yfinance" } }, "data_fetched_at": "2026-08-19 22:28:21", "data_as_of": "2026-08-18", "data_source": "Tiingo (OHLCV, adjusted) + Alpha Vantage (US fundamentals) + Finnhub (news/sentiment)", "ohlcv_source": "tiingo", "ohlcv_adjustment": "adjusted_ohlc", "date_convention": "ISO-8601 trading date; source exchange timezone", "field_sources": { "industry": "yfinance", "sector": "yfinance", "dividendYield": "yfinance", "beta": "yfinance", "trailingPE": "yfinance", "forwardPE": "yfinance", "marketCap": "yfinance", "profitMargins": "yfinance", "sharesOutstanding": "yfinance", "impliedSharesOutstanding": "yfinance", "priceToBook": "yfinance", "pegRatio": "yfinance", "currentPrice": "yfinance", "debtToEquity": "yfinance", "returnOnAssets": "yfinance", "returnOnEquity": "yfinance", "earningsGrowth": "yfinance", "revenueGrowth": "yfinance", "grossMargins": "yfinance", "operatingMargins": "yfinance", "regularMarketPrice": "yfinance", "evToEbitda": "alpha_vantage", "pe_trailing": "yfinance", "pe_forward": "yfinance", "revenue_growth": "yfinance", "earnings_growth": "yfinance", "debt_to_equity": "yfinance", "return_on_equity": "yfinance", "return_on_assets": "yfinance", "gross_margins": "yfinance", "operating_margins": "yfinance", "profit_margins": "yfinance", "market_cap": "yfinance", "current_price": "yfinance", "ev_to_ebitda": "alpha_vantage", "price_to_book": "yfinance", "shares_outstanding": "yfinance", "implied_shares_outstanding": "yfinance", "50ma": "yfinance", "200ma": "yfinance" }, "provider_status": { "ohlcv": "tiingo", "yfinance": "ok", "alpha_vantage": "ok", "finnhub": "ok" }, "event_news": null, "disclaimer": "本结果为技术面研究框架的机械输出，基于历史价量+滞后财报，事件数据缺失时不得解释为没有风险；非投资建议，据此操作风险自负。" } ], "failed_count": 0, "partial": false, "portfolio_risk": { "status": "no_portfolio_supplied", "total_value": null, "sector_weights_pct": {}, "concentrated_sectors": {}, "correlations_20d": { "AAPL:TSLA": -0.013, "AAPL:NVDA": -0.287, "TSLA:NVDA": 0.359 }, "warnings": [], "limits": { "max_single_position_pct": 20.0, "max_sector_weight_pct": 35.0, "max_correlation_for_new_add": 0.8 } } }